Football · England Championship · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Lincoln City vs Wrexham

Team pages: Lincoln City · Wrexham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Lincoln City1.34

Wrexham1.4

1X2

34% 28% 37%

Lincoln City Draw Wrexham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lincoln City 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDWLLL

Wrexham 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWLLWD

Head-to-head

Lincoln City 2–1–3 Wrexham (6 last)

Lincoln City0-2Wrexham
Wrexham1-0Lincoln City
Lincoln City1-0Wrexham
Wrexham1-2Lincoln City
Wrexham3-1Lincoln City
Lincoln City1-1Wrexham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lincoln City 1453 · Wrexham 1488

	Lincoln City	Draw	Wrexham
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Wrexham: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lincoln City	Wrexham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 2.9	2.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.25

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.89 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.28
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +6’	2.70	3.25	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +2’	2.89	3.28	2.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lincoln City 2–1–3 Wrexham

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/25 England League 1	Lincoln City	0-2 HT 0-0	Wrexham
26/11/24 England League 1	Wrexham	1-0 HT 0-0	Lincoln City
29/11/16 England National League	Lincoln City	1-0 HT 1-0	Wrexham
04/10/16 England National League	Wrexham	1-2 HT 0-2	Lincoln City
23/01/16 England National League	Wrexham	3-1 HT 1-1	Lincoln City
05/09/15 England National League	Lincoln City	1-1 HT 0-0	Wrexham

Standings · England Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	28	14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	30	19	29
3	Stoke	15	9	2	4	24	18	29
4	Wolverhampton	15	8	4	3	26	18	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	23	15	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	22	18	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	29	15	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	24	18	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	37	23	23
10	Sheff Utd	15	6	4	5	21	19	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	20	18	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	32	24	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	22	23	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	27	27	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	18	20	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	23	27	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	16	24	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	20	29	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	13	23	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	13	23	15
21	Lincoln City	15	4	3	8	15	26	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	22	31	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	14	30	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	13	30	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lincoln City	Wrexham
Burnley	4-1 W	1-1 D
West Ham	0-6 L	0-6 L
Sheff Utd	0-3 L	0-1 L
Preston	1-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Wrexham (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lincoln City

WWLLLDWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	QPR England Championship	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
03/11	Watford England Championship	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
31/10	Birmingham England Championship	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
24/10	Burnley England Championship	1-1	4-1	2	2	W
17/10	Millwall England Championship	2-0	2-2	2	11	D
14/10	West Ham England Championship	0-1	0-6	3	4	L
10/10	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-1	0-3	2	7	L
19/09	Swansea England Championship	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
15/09	Bristol City England Championship	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
12/09	Preston England Championship	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Wrexham

DLWDLWLLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Wolverhampton England Championship	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
04/11	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	2-0	3	1	W
30/10	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
24/10	Blackburn England Championship	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
17/10	Preston England Championship	2-1	4-1	8	6	W
13/10	West Brom England Championship	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
10/10	Derby England Championship	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
19/09	Southampton England Championship	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
11/09	West Ham England Championship	0-2	0-6	6	1	L
08/09	Burnley England Championship	0-1	1-1	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lincoln City vs Wrexham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wrexham win (37%). Probabilities: Lincoln City 34%, draw 28%, Wrexham 37%.

How many goals are expected in Lincoln City vs Wrexham?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Lincoln City 1.34 · Wrexham 1.4), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lincoln City vs Wrexham?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.