Football · England Championship · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Middlesbrough vs Bristol City

Team pages: Middlesbrough · Bristol City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Middlesbrough2.2

Bristol City0.83

1X2

68% 20% 12%

Middlesbrough Draw Bristol City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Middlesbrough 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWDWWLD

Bristol City 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLDWLL

Head-to-head

Middlesbrough 0–1–5 Bristol City (6 last)

Middlesbrough1-1Bristol City
Bristol City2-0Middlesbrough
Bristol City2-1Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough0-2Bristol City
Middlesbrough1-2Bristol City
Bristol City3-2Middlesbrough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Middlesbrough 1538 · Bristol City 1464

	Middlesbrough	Draw	Bristol City
Our model	68%	20%	12%
Market	68%	20%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Middlesbrough (rating 1538 vs 1464).
H2H favours Bristol City: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Middlesbrough	Bristol City
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.4	0.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.6	2.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.05

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.39
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.14 ★
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +12’	1.36	4.75	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +2’	1.39	5.14	7.16

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Middlesbrough 0–1–5 Bristol City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England Championship	Middlesbrough	1-1 HT 0-0	Bristol City
20/12/25 England Championship	Bristol City	2-0 HT 1-0	Middlesbrough
21/02/25 England Championship	Bristol City	2-1 HT 0-1	Middlesbrough
19/10/24 England Championship	Middlesbrough	0-2 HT 0-2	Bristol City
10/02/24 England Championship	Middlesbrough	1-2 HT 0-2	Bristol City
25/11/23 England Championship	Bristol City	3-2 HT 2-0	Middlesbrough

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	28	14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	30	19	29
3	Stoke	15	9	2	4	24	18	29
4	Wolverhampton	15	8	4	3	26	18	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	23	15	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	22	18	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	29	15	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	24	18	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	37	23	23
10	Sheff Utd	15	6	4	5	21	19	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	20	18	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	32	24	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	22	23	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	27	27	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	18	20	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	23	27	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	16	24	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	20	29	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	13	23	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	13	23	15
21	Lincoln City	15	4	3	8	15	26	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	22	31	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	14	30	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	13	30	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Middlesbrough	Bristol City
Watford	0-0 D	1-0 W
Charlton	3-0 W	1-1 D
Bolton	5-1 W	3-2 W
Stoke	3-2 W	0-0 D
Wolverhampton	1-0 W	1-2 L
Norwich	4-3 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Middlesbrough (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Middlesbrough

WDDWWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Watford England Championship	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
04/11	Wrexham England Championship	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
31/10	Charlton England Championship	2-0	3-0	8	3	W
23/10	Bolton England Championship	3-1	5-1	12	1	W
17/10	Cardiff England Championship	0-2	2-2	11	3	D
13/10	Stoke England Championship	0-0	3-2	3	2	W
10/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
19/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
15/09	Millwall England Championship	0-2	2-2	14	2	D
12/09	Norwich England Championship	3-1	4-3	3	3	W

Bristol City

LLWDLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Norwich England Championship	0-1	0-5	8	0	L
04/11	Wolverhampton England Championship	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
31/10	Bolton England Championship	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
24/10	Stoke England Championship	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
17/10	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
13/10	Blackburn England Championship	0-1	0-1	10	0	L
10/10	Charlton England Championship	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
18/09	Watford England Championship	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
15/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-0	0-1	13	7	L
12/09	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-4	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Middlesbrough win (68%). Probabilities: Middlesbrough 68%, draw 20%, Bristol City 12%.

How many goals are expected in Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Middlesbrough 2.2 · Bristol City 0.83), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.