Football · England Championship · 21/11, 13:30

Prediction: Millwall vs QPR

Team pages: Millwall · QPR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Millwall1.47

QPR1.4

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Millwall Draw QPR

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Millwall 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDWLDLWLL

QPR 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDWLWLDW

Head-to-head

Millwall 3–2–1 QPR (6 last)

QPR1-1Millwall
Millwall2-0QPR
QPR1-2Millwall
Millwall2-1QPR
QPR1-1Millwall
QPR2-0Millwall

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Millwall 1472 · QPR 1505

	Millwall	Draw	QPR
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	38%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Millwall: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Millwall	QPR
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.50

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.54 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.52
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.72

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 4.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +7’	2.40	3.50	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +9’	2.54	3.52	2.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Millwall 3–2–1 QPR

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 England EFL Cup	QPR	1-1 HT 0-0	Millwall
18/04/26 England Championship	Millwall	2-0 HT 2-0	QPR
18/10/25 England Championship	QPR	1-2 HT 0-2	Millwall
01/02/25 England Championship	Millwall	2-1 HT 2-1	QPR
21/09/24 England Championship	QPR	1-1 HT 1-1	Millwall
20/01/24 England Championship	QPR	2-0 HT 1-0	Millwall

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	28	14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	30	19	29
3	Stoke	15	9	2	4	24	18	29
4	Wolverhampton	15	8	4	3	26	18	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	23	15	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	22	18	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	29	15	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	24	18	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	37	23	23
10	Sheff Utd	15	6	4	5	21	19	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	20	18	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	32	24	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	22	23	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	27	27	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	18	20	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	23	27	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	16	24	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	20	29	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	13	23	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	13	23	15
21	Lincoln City	15	4	3	8	15	26	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	22	31	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	14	30	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	13	30	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Millwall	QPR
West Brom	0-3 L	1-1 D
Birmingham	0-3 L	0-3 L
Derby	4-1 W	4-1 W
Lincoln City	2-2 D	2-1 W
Swansea	0-1 L	5-0 W
Preston	1-0 W	2-2 D
West Ham	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: QPR (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Millwall

LDDWLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	West Brom England Championship	0-0	0-3	4	3	L
03/11	Birmingham England Championship	0-3	0-3	2	2	L
31/10	Derby England Championship	3-0	4-1	4	5	W
24/10	Portsmouth England Championship	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
17/10	Lincoln City England Championship	0-2	2-2	12	11	D
13/10	Swansea England Championship	0-0	0-1	13	5	L
10/10	Preston England Championship	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
19/09	West Ham England Championship	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
15/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	2-0	2-2	1	2	D
12/09	Blackburn England Championship	0-1	1-3	2	8	L

QPR

DDDDWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Lincoln City England Championship	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
03/11	Burnley England Championship	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
31/10	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-4	4	3	L
24/10	Swansea England Championship	4-0	5-0	6	5	W
17/10	Birmingham England Championship	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
14/10	Derby England Championship	3-0	4-1	1	5	W
09/10	West Ham England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
19/09	Preston England Championship	0-2	2-2	10	6	D
12/09	West Brom England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
09/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-0	12	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Millwall vs QPR?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Millwall win (38%). Probabilities: Millwall 38%, draw 27%, QPR 35%.

How many goals are expected in Millwall vs QPR?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Millwall 1.47 · QPR 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Millwall vs QPR?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.