Football · England Championship · 21/11, 13:30
Prediction: Norwich vs Cardiff
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.94Total
Norwich2.36
Cardiff1.58
1X2
Norwich
Draw
Cardiff
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Norwich
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Cardiff
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Norwich
5–1
Cardiff
(6 last)
- Cardiff1-2Norwich
- Norwich4-2Cardiff
- Cardiff2-1Norwich
- Norwich4-1Cardiff
- Cardiff2-3Norwich
- Norwich2-0Cardiff
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Norwich 1521 · Cardiff 1502
| Norwich | Draw | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 21% | 25% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Norwich: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Norwich | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.6 | 2.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.7 | 2.8 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Norwich 5–0–1 Cardiff
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/26 England EFL Cup | Cardiff | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Norwich |
| 03/05/25 England Championship | Norwich | 4-2 HT 3-0 | Cardiff |
| 02/11/24 England Championship | Cardiff | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Norwich |
| 17/02/24 England Championship | Norwich | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Cardiff |
| 11/11/23 England Championship | Cardiff | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Norwich |
| 25/02/23 England Championship | Norwich | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Cardiff |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | 29 |
| 3 | Stoke | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 29 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | 28 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 28 |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | 24 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 18 | 24 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | 23 |
| 10 | Sheff Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 22 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 24 | 21 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | 21 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 18 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 18 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | 18 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 18 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | 17 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 17 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 15 |
| 21 | Lincoln City | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | 15 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | 10 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 30 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Norwich | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Watford | 3-2 W | 5-1 W |
| Charlton | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Bolton | 3-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Middlesbrough | 3-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Birmingham | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Cardiff (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Norwich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 03/11 | Derby England Championship |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 31/10 | Watford England Championship |
0-2 | 3-2 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 24/10 | Charlton England Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 14/10 | Southampton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Swansea England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | Bolton England Championship |
2-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 12/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
Cardiff
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Burnley England Championship |
1-2 | 5-4 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 04/11 | West Ham England Championship |
3-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 31/10 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/10 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/10 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 13/10 | Watford England Championship |
4-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 19/09 | Charlton England Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 12/09 | Bolton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 08/09 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Norwich vs Cardiff?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Norwich win (54%). Probabilities: Norwich 54%, draw 22%, Cardiff 24%.
How many goals are expected in Norwich vs Cardiff?
The model expects 3.94 goals (Norwich 2.36 · Cardiff 1.58), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Cardiff?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.