Football · England Championship · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Sheff Utd vs Watford

Team pages: Sheff Utd · Watford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Sheff Utd1.83

Watford0.93

1X2

58% 24% 18%

Sheff Utd Draw Watford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sheff Utd 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWDWWL

Watford 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWLLWD

Head-to-head

Sheff Utd 5–1 Watford (6 last)

Watford0-2Sheff Utd
Sheff Utd1-0Watford
Watford1-2Sheff Utd
Sheff Utd1-0Watford
Sheff Utd1-0Watford
Watford1-0Sheff Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sheff Utd 1516 · Watford 1444

	Sheff Utd	Draw	Watford
Our model	58%	25%	18%
Market	58%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sheff Utd (rating 1516 vs 1444).
H2H favours Sheff Utd: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sheff Utd	Watford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.2 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.90

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.63
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.08 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.19

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +18’	1.57	3.90	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +2’	1.63	4.08	5.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sheff Utd 5–0–1 Watford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England Championship	Watford	0-2 HT 0-0	Sheff Utd
18/10/25 England Championship	Sheff Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Watford
04/01/25 England Championship	Watford	1-2 HT 1-1	Sheff Utd
01/09/24 England Championship	Sheff Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Watford
25/02/23 England Championship	Sheff Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Watford
01/08/22 England Championship	Watford	1-0 HT 0-0	Sheff Utd

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	28	14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	30	19	29
3	Stoke	15	9	2	4	24	18	29
4	Wolverhampton	15	8	4	3	26	18	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	23	15	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	22	18	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	29	15	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	24	18	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	37	23	23
10	Sheff Utd	15	6	4	5	21	19	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	20	18	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	32	24	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	22	23	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	27	27	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	18	20	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	23	27	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	16	24	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	20	29	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	13	23	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	13	23	15
21	Lincoln City	15	4	3	8	15	26	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	22	31	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	14	30	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	13	30	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sheff Utd	Watford
Charlton	1-2 L	2-0 W
Preston	3-2 W	2-1 W
Bristol City	1-0 W	0-1 L
Lincoln City	3-0 W	1-0 W
Stoke	1-2 L	1-2 L
Wolverhampton	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sheff Utd (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sheff Utd

WLLWLWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Charlton England Championship	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
03/11	Preston England Championship	3-1	3-2	3	1	W
30/10	Wrexham England Championship	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
24/10	Derby England Championship	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
17/10	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
14/10	Portsmouth England Championship	0-1	2-3	6	6	L
10/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
19/09	Stoke England Championship	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
13/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
08/09	Blackburn England Championship	2-1	2-1	3	3	W

Watford

WLLLLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
03/11	Lincoln City England Championship	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
31/10	Norwich England Championship	2-0	2-3	2	2	L
24/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
17/10	Charlton England Championship	0-0	2-0	4	8	W
13/10	Cardiff England Championship	0-4	1-5	1	5	L
10/10	Burnley England Championship	0-3	0-4	6	0	L
18/09	Bristol City England Championship	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
12/09	Stoke England Championship	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
08/09	Preston England Championship	0-1	2-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sheff Utd vs Watford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sheff Utd win (58%). Probabilities: Sheff Utd 58%, draw 24%, Watford 18%.

How many goals are expected in Sheff Utd vs Watford?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Sheff Utd 1.83 · Watford 0.93), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sheff Utd vs Watford?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.