Football · England Championship · 21/11, 13:30

Prediction: Southampton vs Derby

Team pages: Southampton · Derby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Southampton2.25

Derby0.9

1X2

67% 20% 13%

Southampton Draw Derby

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Southampton 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDWWDL

Derby 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLDLLW

Head-to-head

Southampton 1–3–1 Derby (5 last)

Southampton2-1Derby
Derby1-1Southampton
Southampton2-2Derby
Derby2-2Southampton
Derby3-0Southampton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southampton 1554 · Derby 1427

	Southampton	Draw	Derby
Our model	67%	20%	13%
Market	67%	19%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1554 vs 1427).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southampton	Derby
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	0.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.3	2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.40
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.06 ★
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +2’	1.36	4.75	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +9’	1.40	5.06	6.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Southampton 1–3–1 Derby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 England Championship	Southampton	2-1 HT 0-1	Derby
04/10/25 England Championship	Derby	1-1 HT 1-1	Southampton
16/01/19 England FA Cup	Southampton	2-2 HT 0-0	Derby
05/01/19 England FA Cup	Derby	2-2 HT 0-1	Southampton
21/07/18 Elite Club Friendlies	Derby	3-0 HT 0-0	Southampton

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	28	14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	30	19	29
3	Stoke	15	9	2	4	24	18	29
4	Wolverhampton	15	8	4	3	26	18	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	23	15	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	22	18	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	29	15	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	24	18	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	37	23	23
10	Sheff Utd	15	6	4	5	21	19	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	20	18	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	32	24	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	22	23	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	27	27	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	18	20	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	23	27	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	16	24	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	20	29	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	13	23	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	13	23	15
21	Lincoln City	15	4	3	8	15	26	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	22	31	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	14	30	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	13	30	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southampton	Derby
West Brom	1-1 D	0-1 L
QPR	4-1 W	1-4 L
Bolton	0-0 D	3-1 W
Norwich	1-0 W	0-4 L
Wrexham	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Southampton (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southampton

WWLWWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Preston England Championship	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
03/11	West Brom England Championship	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
31/10	QPR England Championship	1-0	4-1	9	3	W
24/10	West Ham England Championship	3-1	3-2	6	3	W
17/10	Bolton England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
14/10	Norwich England Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/10	Portsmouth England Championship	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
19/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
12/09	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	4-1	2	2	W
08/09	Swansea England Championship	2-0	3-1	9	1	W

Derby

LLDDLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Bolton England Championship	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
03/11	Norwich England Championship	0-3	0-4	4	1	L
31/10	Millwall England Championship	0-3	1-4	5	5	L
24/10	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
17/10	Stoke England Championship	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
14/10	QPR England Championship	0-3	1-4	3	5	L
10/10	Wrexham England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
19/09	Burnley England Championship	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
09/09	West Brom England Championship	0-1	0-1	11	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southampton vs Derby?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Southampton win (67%). Probabilities: Southampton 67%, draw 20%, Derby 13%.

How many goals are expected in Southampton vs Derby?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Southampton 2.25 · Derby 0.9), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Southampton vs Derby?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.