Football · England Championship · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Stoke vs Birmingham

Team pages: Stoke · Birmingham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Stoke1.21

Birmingham1.28

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Stoke Draw Birmingham

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Stoke 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWDWWW

Birmingham 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Stoke 2–2–2 Birmingham (6 last)

Birmingham1-1Stoke
Stoke1-0Birmingham
Stoke1-2Birmingham
Birmingham1-3Stoke
Birmingham0-0Stoke
Stoke1-2Birmingham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stoke 1574 · Birmingham 1565

	Stoke	Draw	Birmingham
Our model	33%	30%	37%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stoke	Birmingham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	2.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.2	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.30

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.89 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.41
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +9’	2.70	3.30	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +2’	2.89	3.41	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stoke 2–2–2 Birmingham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England Championship	Birmingham	1-1 HT 1-0	Stoke
13/09/25 England Championship	Stoke	1-0 HT 1-0	Birmingham
20/01/24 England Championship	Stoke	1-2 HT 0-1	Birmingham
26/12/23 England Championship	Birmingham	1-3 HT 0-2	Stoke
10/04/23 England Championship	Birmingham	0-0 HT 0-0	Stoke
05/11/22 England Championship	Stoke	1-2 HT 0-1	Birmingham

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	28	14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	30	19	29
3	Stoke	15	9	2	4	24	18	29
4	Wolverhampton	15	8	4	3	26	18	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	23	15	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	22	18	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	29	15	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	24	18	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	37	23	23
10	Sheff Utd	15	6	4	5	21	19	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	20	18	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	32	24	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	22	23	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	27	27	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	18	20	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	23	27	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	16	24	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	20	29	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	13	23	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	13	23	15
21	Lincoln City	15	4	3	8	15	26	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	22	31	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	14	30	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	13	30	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stoke	Birmingham
Preston	2-0 W	4-0 W
Derby	1-0 W	2-1 W
Middlesbrough	2-3 L	2-2 D
Cardiff	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Birmingham (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stoke

DWWWLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Portsmouth England Championship	0-1	2-1	0	6	W
03/11	Blackburn England Championship	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
31/10	Preston England Championship	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
24/10	Bristol City England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
17/10	Derby England Championship	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
13/10	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	2-3	4	2	L
10/10	Bolton England Championship	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
19/09	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	2-1	8	8	W
12/09	Watford England Championship	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
08/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	1-1	5	3	D

Birmingham

LWDWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Swansea England Championship	1-0	2-1	8	6	W
03/11	Millwall England Championship	3-0	3-0	6	2	W
31/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
24/10	Cardiff England Championship	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
17/10	QPR England Championship	1-0	3-0	0	4	W
13/10	Preston England Championship	3-0	4-0	6	3	W
10/10	West Brom England Championship	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
19/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	2-2	5	2	D
12/09	Derby England Championship	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
09/09	Norwich England Championship	0-2	1-2	7	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stoke vs Birmingham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Birmingham win (37%). Probabilities: Stoke 34%, draw 29%, Birmingham 37%.

How many goals are expected in Stoke vs Birmingham?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Stoke 1.21 · Birmingham 1.28), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Stoke vs Birmingham?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.