Football · England Championship · 21/11, 16:00
Prediction: Swansea vs West Brom
Team pages: Swansea · West Brom
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Swansea1.33
West Brom1.29
1X2
Swansea
Draw
West Brom
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Swansea
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
West Brom
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Swansea
2–2–2
West Brom
(6 last)
- Swansea1-1West Brom
- Swansea1-0West Brom
- West Brom3-2Swansea
- Swansea1-1West Brom
- West Brom1-0Swansea
- Swansea1-0West Brom
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Swansea 1502 · West Brom 1544
| Swansea | Draw | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours West Brom (rating 1502 vs 1544).
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Swansea | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.6 | 2.6 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Swansea 2–2–2 West Brom
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/26 England FA Cup | Swansea | 1-1 HT 0-0 | West Brom |
| 01/01/26 England Championship | Swansea | 1-0 HT 0-0 | West Brom |
| 29/11/25 England Championship | West Brom | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Swansea |
| 04/01/25 England Championship | Swansea | 1-1 HT 0-0 | West Brom |
| 31/08/24 England Championship | West Brom | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Swansea |
| 01/01/24 England Championship | Swansea | 1-0 HT 0-0 | West Brom |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | 29 |
| 3 | Stoke | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 29 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | 28 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 28 |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | 24 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 18 | 24 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | 23 |
| 10 | Sheff Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 22 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 24 | 21 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | 21 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 18 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 18 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | 18 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 18 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | 17 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 17 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 15 |
| 21 | Lincoln City | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | 15 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | 10 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 30 | 8 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Swansea | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Blackburn | 4-0 W | 3-2 W |
| QPR | 0-5 L | 1-1 D |
| West Ham | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Millwall | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Southampton | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: West Brom (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Swansea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Birmingham England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 03/11 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 31/10 | Blackburn England Championship |
3-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 24/10 | QPR England Championship |
0-4 | 0-5 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 17/10 | West Ham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 13/10 | Millwall England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Norwich England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Burnley England Championship |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 08/09 | Southampton England Championship |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
West Brom
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Millwall England Championship |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 03/11 | Southampton England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 31/10 | West Ham England Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 24/10 | Preston England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 17/10 | Blackburn England Championship |
1-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/10 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Birmingham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | QPR England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 09/09 | Derby England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Swansea vs West Brom?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Swansea win (37%). Probabilities: Swansea 37%, draw 28%, West Brom 35%.
How many goals are expected in Swansea vs West Brom?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Swansea 1.33 · West Brom 1.29), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs West Brom?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.