Football · England League 2 · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Rotherham vs Crawley Town

Team pages: Rotherham · Crawley Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Rotherham1.67

Crawley Town1.28

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Rotherham Draw Crawley Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Rotherham 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLLDDL

Crawley Town 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLDLLDW

Head-to-head

Rotherham 0–2 Crawley Town (2 last)

Rotherham0-4Crawley Town
Crawley Town1-0Rotherham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rotherham 1439 · Crawley Town 1448

	Rotherham	Draw	Crawley Town
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Crawley Town: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rotherham	Crawley Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.3	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.5	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.20 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.57
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +18’	2.00	3.50	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +2078’	2.20	3.57	3.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rotherham 0–0–2 Crawley Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/25 England League 1	Rotherham	0-4 HT 0-1	Crawley Town
23/11/24 England League 1	Crawley Town	1-0 HT 1-0	Rotherham

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	25	15	31
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	28	18	26
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	21	12	22
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	17	17	22
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	23	25	21
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	24	18	20
7	York	14	5	5	4	24	21	20
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	20	19	20
9	Accrington Stanley	14	4	7	3	23	17	19
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	24	21	19
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	19	17	19
12	Exeter	14	5	4	5	11	9	19
13	Swindon	14	5	4	5	15	17	19
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	20	17	18
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	17	22	18
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	18	18	17
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	17	23	16
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	15	19	15
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	10	14	15
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	17	26	15
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	9	10	14
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	18	25	12
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	12	19	12
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	13	21	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rotherham	Crawley Town
Shrewsbury	3-3 D	2-3 L
Northampton	1-0 W	1-1 D
Salford City	3-3 D	1-2 L
Bristol Rovers	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Rotherham (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rotherham

LDWDLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Swindon England League 2	0-1	1-2	0	5	L
24/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
20/10	Newport County England League 2	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
17/10	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	0-2	5	8	L
10/10	Gillingham England League 2	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
03/10	Exeter England League 2	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
26/09	Crewe England League 2	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
19/09	Northampton England League 2	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
12/09	Salford City England League 2	2-2	3-3	4	6	D
05/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-1	0-1	4	4	L

Crawley Town

LDLLLDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Oldham England League 2	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
24/10	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
20/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-0	2-3	4	4	L
17/10	Salford City England League 2	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
10/10	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	2-2	1	7	D
19/09	Grimsby England League 2	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
12/09	Cheltenham England League 2	1-2	1-3	8	6	L
05/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
01/09	Northampton England League 2	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
29/08	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-2	0-2	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rotherham vs Crawley Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rotherham win (46%). Probabilities: Rotherham 46%, draw 26%, Crawley Town 28%.

How many goals are expected in Rotherham vs Crawley Town?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Rotherham 1.67 · Crawley Town 1.28), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Crawley Town?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.