Football · England League 2 · 21/11, 16:00
Prediction: Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers
Team pages: Cheltenham · Bristol Rovers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.7Total
Cheltenham1.13
Bristol Rovers1.57
1X2
Cheltenham
Draw
Bristol Rovers
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Cheltenham
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Bristol Rovers
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cheltenham
1–1–4
Bristol Rovers
(6 last)
- Bristol Rovers4-0Cheltenham
- Cheltenham1-0Bristol Rovers
- Cheltenham0-1Bristol Rovers
- Cheltenham1-3Bristol Rovers
- Bristol Rovers1-1Cheltenham
- Bristol Rovers4-1Cheltenham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cheltenham 1483 · Bristol Rovers 1443
| Cheltenham | Draw | Bristol Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Market | 27% | 25% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cheltenham (rating 1483 vs 1443).
- H2H favours Bristol Rovers: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cheltenham | Bristol Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.7 | 0.5 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4.1 | 1.9 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cheltenham 1–1–4 Bristol Rovers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 England League 2 | Bristol Rovers | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Cheltenham |
| 22/11/25 England League 2 | Cheltenham | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bristol Rovers |
| 07/10/25 England EFL Trophy | Cheltenham | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bristol Rovers |
| 13/04/24 England League 1 | Cheltenham | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Bristol Rovers |
| 09/12/23 England League 1 | Bristol Rovers | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Cheltenham |
| 05/09/23 England EFL Trophy | Bristol Rovers | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Cheltenham |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 32 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 3 | Grimsby | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 23 |
| 4 | York | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 23 |
| 5 | Crewe | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 6 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 22 |
| 8 | Exeter | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 22 |
| 9 | Cheltenham | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 26 | 21 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 21 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 20 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 20 |
| 13 | Accrington Stanley | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
| 15 | Tranmere | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 19 |
| 16 | Swindon | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 19 |
| 17 | Port Vale | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| 18 | Bristol Rovers | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
| 19 | Northampton | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 15 |
| 20 | Oldham | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 15 |
| 21 | Colchester | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 15 |
| 22 | Rochdale | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 27 | 15 |
| 23 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cheltenham | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Fleetwood Town | 4-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Salford City | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Chesterfield | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cheltenham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 31/10 | Tranmere England League 2 |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | Newport County England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 20/10 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
3-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 03/10 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 26/09 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 12/09 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
Bristol Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 31/10 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Swindon England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 20/10 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 17/10 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 10/10 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Crewe England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 26/09 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Gillingham England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bristol Rovers win (47%). Probabilities: Cheltenham 27%, draw 26%, Bristol Rovers 47%.
How many goals are expected in Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers?
The model expects 2.7 goals (Cheltenham 1.13 · Bristol Rovers 1.57), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.