Football · England League 2 · 21/11, 13:30

Prediction: Gillingham vs Crewe

Team pages: Gillingham · Crewe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Gillingham1.4

Crewe1.47

1X2

35% 27% 38%

Gillingham Draw Crewe

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gillingham 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Crewe 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gillingham 1–2–3 Crewe (6 last)

Crewe1-0Gillingham
Gillingham1-0Crewe
Gillingham0-0Crewe
Crewe2-0Gillingham
Gillingham0-0Crewe
Crewe2-0Gillingham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gillingham 1495 · Crewe 1506

	Gillingham	Draw	Crewe
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	35%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Crewe: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gillingham	Crewe
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.4	1.7 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.30

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.73
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.60 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:10 +8’	2.63	3.30	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +4’	2.77	3.24	2.56
13:35 +12’	2.73▼	3.27▲	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gillingham 1–2–3 Crewe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England League 2	Crewe	1-0 HT 0-0	Gillingham
23/08/25 England League 2	Gillingham	1-0 HT 0-0	Crewe
15/02/25 England League 2	Gillingham	0-0 HT 0-0	Crewe
05/10/24 England League 2	Crewe	2-0 HT 1-0	Gillingham
29/03/24 England League 2	Gillingham	0-0 HT 0-0	Crewe
03/10/23 England League 2	Crewe	2-0 HT 1-0	Gillingham

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	15	10	2	3	26	16	32
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	28	18	26
3	Grimsby	15	6	5	4	28	19	23
4	York	15	6	5	4	25	21	23
5	Crewe	15	5	8	2	19	19	23
6	Walsall	13	5	7	1	21	12	22
7	Chesterfield	15	6	4	5	26	21	22
8	Exeter	15	6	4	5	12	9	22
9	Cheltenham	15	6	3	6	23	26	21
10	Shrewsbury	15	6	3	6	19	23	21
11	Fleetwood Town	15	5	5	5	19	18	20
12	Gillingham	15	5	5	5	20	21	20
13	Accrington Stanley	15	4	7	4	25	21	19
14	Newport County	15	4	7	4	22	19	19
15	Tranmere	15	4	7	4	19	18	19
16	Swindon	15	5	4	6	16	21	19
17	Port Vale	13	5	3	5	14	16	18
18	Bristol Rovers	15	5	1	9	17	25	16
19	Northampton	14	3	6	5	10	11	15
20	Oldham	15	4	3	8	16	21	15
21	Colchester	14	3	6	5	14	19	15
22	Rochdale	15	4	3	8	17	27	15
23	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	18	25	12
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	13	21	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gillingham	Crewe
Colchester	0-2 L	1-1 D
Shrewsbury	2-1 W	1-1 D
Rotherham	4-1 W	1-1 D
Newport County	0-0 D	2-2 D
Bristol Rovers	3-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gillingham (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gillingham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Colchester England League 2	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
31/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
24/10	Grimsby England League 2	1-1	1-4	4	7	L
20/10	Port Vale England League 2	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
17/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-2	1-3	1	5	L
10/10	Rotherham England League 2	1-1	4-1	2	5	W
03/10	Newport County England League 2	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
26/09	York England League 2	0-1	0-3	2	6	L
19/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-0	3-0	1	3	W
12/09	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	2-0	5	5	W

Crewe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Newport County England League 2	0-2	2-2	4	6	D
31/10	Barnet England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
24/10	Chesterfield England League 2	0-5	1-5	4	0	L
20/10	Exeter England League 2	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
17/10	Rochdale England League 2	2-0	3-2	1	1	W
10/10	Swindon England League 2	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
03/10	Bristol Rovers England League 2	2-0	3-1	3	8	W
26/09	Rotherham England League 2	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
19/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Colchester England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gillingham vs Crewe?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Crewe win (38%). Probabilities: Gillingham 35%, draw 27%, Crewe 38%.

How many goals are expected in Gillingham vs Crewe?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Gillingham 1.4 · Crewe 1.47), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Crewe?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.