Football · England League 2 · 21/11, 13:30
Prediction: Newport County vs Swindon
Team pages: Newport County · Swindon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.42Total
Newport County1.38
Swindon1.04
1X2
Newport County
Draw
Swindon
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Newport County
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Swindon
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newport County
2–4
Swindon
(6 last)
- Swindon0-2Newport County
- Swindon2-0Newport County
- Newport County0-1Swindon
- Newport County1-2Swindon
- Swindon4-0Newport County
- Newport County2-1Swindon
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newport County 1519 · Swindon 1459
| Newport County | Draw | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newport County (rating 1519 vs 1459).
- H2H favours Swindon: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newport County | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.3 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newport County 2–0–4 Swindon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/26 England EFL Trophy | Swindon | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Newport County |
| 11/02/26 England League 2 | Swindon | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Newport County |
| 04/10/25 England League 2 | Newport County | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Swindon |
| 24/01/25 England League 2 | Newport County | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Swindon |
| 14/09/24 England League 2 | Swindon | 4-0 HT 4-0 | Newport County |
| 03/02/24 England League 2 | Newport County | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Swindon |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 32 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 3 | Grimsby | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 23 |
| 4 | York | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 23 |
| 5 | Crewe | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 6 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 22 |
| 8 | Exeter | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 22 |
| 9 | Cheltenham | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 26 | 21 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 21 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 20 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 20 |
| 13 | Accrington Stanley | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
| 15 | Tranmere | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 19 |
| 16 | Swindon | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 19 |
| 17 | Port Vale | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| 18 | Bristol Rovers | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
| 19 | Northampton | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 15 |
| 20 | Oldham | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 15 |
| 21 | Colchester | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 15 |
| 22 | Rochdale | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 27 | 15 |
| 23 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newport County | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Rotherham | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| York | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| Grimsby | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Accrington Stanley | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Newport County (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newport County
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Crewe England League 2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 30/10 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
4-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 20/10 | Rotherham England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/10 | York England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/10 | Gillingham England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 26/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
Swindon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 31/10 | Rotherham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 20/10 | Barnet England League 2 |
3-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 17/10 | Walsall England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 10/10 | Crewe England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/10 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 19/09 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | York England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newport County vs Swindon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newport County win (44%). Probabilities: Newport County 44%, draw 28%, Swindon 28%.
How many goals are expected in Newport County vs Swindon?
The model expects 2.42 goals (Newport County 1.38 · Swindon 1.04), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Swindon?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.