Football · England League 1 · 03/10, 16:00
Prediction: Luton vs Doncaster
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Luton1.96
Doncaster0.99
1X2
Luton
Draw
Doncaster
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Luton
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Doncaster
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Luton
3–2–1
Doncaster
(6 last)
- Doncaster1-1Luton
- Luton1-0Doncaster
- Luton4-0Doncaster
- Doncaster2-1Luton
- Doncaster1-1Luton
- Luton3-1Doncaster
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luton (rating 1538 vs 1448).
- H2H favours Luton: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Luton | Doncaster | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.7 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.3 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.2 | 1.5 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luton 3–2–1 Doncaster
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 England League 1 | Doncaster | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Luton |
| 27/09/25 England League 1 | Luton | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Doncaster |
| 23/03/19 England League 1 | Luton | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Doncaster |
| 08/09/18 England League 1 | Doncaster | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Luton |
| 18/02/17 England League 2 | Doncaster | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Luton |
| 24/09/16 England League 2 | Luton | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Doncaster |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradford | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Sheff Wed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Plymouth | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 13 |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Cambridge Utd | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Oxford Utd | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 |
| 8 | Reading | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 10 |
| 9 | Stockport | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 10 |
| 10 | Leyton Orient | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 10 |
| 11 | Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| 12 | Burton Albion | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Leicester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 14 | Wycombe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| 16 | Luton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 8 |
| 17 | Mansfield | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 8 |
| 19 | Bromley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 21 | Doncaster | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 22 | Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 5 |
| 24 | Wigan | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Luton | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Mansfield | 2-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Notts County | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Barnsley | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Doncaster (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 14 | 7 | L |
| 10/09 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 02/09 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Mansfield England League 1 |
0-3 | 2-5 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Notts County England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 15/08 | Reading England League 1 |
1-3 | 4-3 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Bolton England League 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 21/04 | Rotherham England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Doncaster
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Plymouth England League 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 01/09 | Notts County England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Barnsley England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Mansfield England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Peterborough England League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 21/04 | Lincoln City England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luton vs Doncaster?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Luton win (59%). Probabilities: Luton 59%, draw 24%, Doncaster 18%.
How many goals are expected in Luton vs Doncaster?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Luton 1.96 · Doncaster 0.99), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Luton vs Doncaster?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.