Football · England League 1 · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Luton vs Cambridge Utd

Team pages: Luton · Cambridge Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Luton1.88

Cambridge Utd1.04

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Luton Draw Cambridge Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Luton 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Cambridge Utd 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Luton 4–1–1 Cambridge Utd (6 last)

Cambridge Utd3-1Luton
Cambridge Utd0-3Luton
Cambridge Utd1-1Luton
Luton7-0Cambridge Utd
Luton2-0Cambridge Utd
Cambridge Utd0-3Luton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Luton 1562 · Cambridge Utd 1533

	Luton	Draw	Cambridge Utd
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	56%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Luton: 4-1-1.
High corners: 16.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Luton	Cambridge Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.5	3.6 / 9.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.71 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.03
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +9’	1.61	3.90	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:43 +2088’	1.71	4.03	4.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Luton 4–1–1 Cambridge Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/10/25 England EFL Trophy	Cambridge Utd	3-1 HT 1-1	Luton
05/02/22 England FA Cup	Cambridge Utd	0-3 HT 0-2	Luton
03/03/18 England League 2	Cambridge Utd	1-1 HT 0-1	Luton
18/11/17 England League 2	Luton	7-0 HT 4-0	Cambridge Utd
28/01/17 England League 2	Luton	2-0 HT 1-0	Cambridge Utd
27/08/16 England League 2	Cambridge Utd	0-3 HT 0-0	Luton

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	28	12	29
2	Stockport	14	8	2	4	26	14	26
3	Oxford Utd	13	7	5	1	22	11	26
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	27	21	24
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	21	19	23
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	25	15	22
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	10	8	22
8	Cambridge Utd	14	5	6	3	21	21	21
9	Sheff Wed	13	5	5	3	22	14	20
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	22	19	19
11	Mansfield	13	5	4	4	20	18	19
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	22	20	18
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	21	23	18
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	19	14	17
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	18	21	17
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	17	13	16
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	13	14	14
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	9	21	13
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	17	21	12
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	14	22	12
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	11	22	11
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	11	23	10
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	12	22	9
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	13	33	9

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Luton	Cambridge Utd
Barnsley	2-1 W	2-1 W
Wycombe	4-1 W	2-2 D
Leyton Orient	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Luton (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Luton

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Huddersfield England League 1	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
31/10	Peterborough England League 1	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
27/10	Doncaster England League 1	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
24/10	Leicester England League 1	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
20/10	Barnsley England League 1	2-0	2-1	7	3	W
17/10	Milton Keynes Dons England League 1	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
10/10	Wycombe England League 1	2-0	4-1	6	2	W
19/09	Bradford England League 1	0-1	0-1	14	7	L
10/09	Stevenage England League 1	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
05/09	Leyton Orient England League 1	1-1	1-1	7	6	D

Cambridge Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Leyton Orient England League 1	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
27/10	Sheff Wed England League 1	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
24/10	Plymouth England League 1	0-1	2-3	13	4	L
20/10	Wycombe England League 1	0-1	2-2	12	4	D
17/10	Barnsley England League 1	0-1	2-1	11	7	W
10/10	Blackpool England League 1	0-0	1-0	13	4	W
26/09	AFC Wimbledon England League 1	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
19/09	Oxford Utd England League 1	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
12/09	Reading England League 1	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
05/09	Burton Albion England League 1	1-1	2-2	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Luton vs Cambridge Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Luton win (56%). Probabilities: Luton 56%, draw 24%, Cambridge Utd 20%.

How many goals are expected in Luton vs Cambridge Utd?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Luton 1.88 · Cambridge Utd 1.04), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Luton vs Cambridge Utd?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.