Football · England League 1 · 14/11, 16:00
Prediction: Peterborough vs Oxford Utd
Team pages: Peterborough · Oxford Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.87Total
Peterborough1.42
Oxford Utd1.45
1X2
Peterborough
Draw
Oxford Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Peterborough
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Oxford Utd
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Peterborough
1–2–3
Oxford Utd
(6 last)
- Oxford Utd2-0Peterborough
- Peterborough1-1Oxford Utd
- Oxford Utd1-0Peterborough
- Oxford Utd5-0Peterborough
- Peterborough3-0Oxford Utd
- Peterborough0-0Oxford Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Peterborough 1435 · Oxford Utd 1557
| Peterborough | Draw | Oxford Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Market | 37% | 25% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oxford Utd (rating 1435 vs 1557).
- H2H favours Oxford Utd: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Peterborough | Oxford Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.4 | 2.5 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 4.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Peterborough 1–2–3 Oxford Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/24 England EFL Cup | Oxford Utd | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Peterborough |
| 08/05/24 England League 1 | Peterborough | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Oxford Utd |
| 04/05/24 England League 1 | Oxford Utd | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Peterborough |
| 13/04/24 England League 1 | Oxford Utd | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Peterborough |
| 09/12/23 England League 1 | Peterborough | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Oxford Utd |
| 01/04/23 England League 1 | Peterborough | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Oxford Utd |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 12 | 29 |
| 2 | Stockport | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 3 | Oxford Utd | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Luton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 24 |
| 5 | Plymouth | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 23 |
| 6 | Reading | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 15 | 22 |
| 7 | Bradford | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Cambridge Utd | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| 9 | Sheff Wed | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 20 |
| 10 | Leicester | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
| 11 | Mansfield | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 19 |
| 12 | Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 20 | 18 |
| 13 | Wycombe | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 23 | 18 |
| 14 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 17 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 21 | 17 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 16 |
| 17 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 13 |
| 19 | Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 12 |
| 20 | Doncaster | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 12 |
| 21 | Wigan | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 11 |
| 22 | Peterborough | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 10 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 9 |
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 33 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Peterborough | Oxford Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Leicester | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Stockport | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Oxford Utd (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Peterborough
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Luton England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Bromley England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 1 | D |
| 20/10 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 10/10 | Leicester England League 1 |
3-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 26/09 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Doncaster England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Sheff Wed England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 01/09 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
Oxford Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Reading England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/10 | Barnsley England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 6 | D |
| 27/10 | Stockport England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/10 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 20/10 | Wigan England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 15/10 | Mansfield England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Notts County England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 19/09 | Cambridge Utd England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Leicester England League 1 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Peterborough vs Oxford Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Oxford Utd win (38%). Probabilities: Peterborough 36%, draw 26%, Oxford Utd 38%.
How many goals are expected in Peterborough vs Oxford Utd?
The model expects 2.87 goals (Peterborough 1.42 · Oxford Utd 1.45), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Oxford Utd?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.