Football · England League 1 · 14/11, 16:00
Prediction: Stevenage vs Mansfield
Team pages: Stevenage · Mansfield
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Stevenage1.36
Mansfield1.17
1X2
Stevenage
Draw
Mansfield
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Stevenage
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Mansfield
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stevenage
1–3–2
Mansfield
(6 last)
- Stevenage1-1Mansfield
- Mansfield1-1Stevenage
- Stevenage1-1Mansfield
- Stevenage0-1Mansfield
- Mansfield0-1Stevenage
- Mansfield1-0Stevenage
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stevenage 1558 · Mansfield 1510
| Stevenage | Draw | Mansfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stevenage (rating 1558 vs 1510).
- H2H favours Mansfield: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stevenage | Mansfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/80/0% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 3.1 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stevenage 1–3–2 Mansfield
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 England League 1 | Stevenage | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Mansfield |
| 13/09/25 England League 1 | Mansfield | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Stevenage |
| 08/03/25 England League 1 | Stevenage | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Mansfield |
| 30/11/24 England FA Cup | Stevenage | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Mansfield |
| 19/10/24 England League 1 | Mansfield | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Stevenage |
| 22/04/23 England League 2 | Mansfield | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Stevenage |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 12 | 29 |
| 2 | Stockport | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 3 | Oxford Utd | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Luton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 24 |
| 5 | Plymouth | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 23 |
| 6 | Reading | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 15 | 22 |
| 7 | Bradford | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Cambridge Utd | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| 9 | Sheff Wed | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 20 |
| 10 | Leicester | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
| 11 | Mansfield | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 19 |
| 12 | Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 20 | 18 |
| 13 | Wycombe | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 23 | 18 |
| 14 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 17 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 21 | 17 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 16 |
| 17 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 13 |
| 19 | Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 12 |
| 20 | Doncaster | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 12 |
| 21 | Wigan | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 11 |
| 22 | Peterborough | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 10 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 9 |
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 33 | 9 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stevenage | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Wigan | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stevenage
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Leicester England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 24/10 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 20/10 | Plymouth England League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/09 | Luton England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | Peterborough England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Doncaster England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
Mansfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 31/10 | Notts County England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | Blackpool England League 1 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 20/10 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 15/10 | Oxford Utd England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Bromley England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/09 | Reading England League 1 |
0-3 | 0-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stevenage vs Mansfield?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stevenage win (40%). Probabilities: Stevenage 40%, draw 29%, Mansfield 31%.
How many goals are expected in Stevenage vs Mansfield?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Stevenage 1.36 · Mansfield 1.17), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Mansfield?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.