Football · England League 1 · 21/11, 16:00
Prediction: Burton Albion vs Luton
Team pages: Burton Albion · Luton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Burton Albion1.04
Luton1.78
1X2
Burton Albion
Draw
Luton
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Burton Albion
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Luton
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Burton Albion
3–1–2
Luton
(6 last)
- Luton1-1Burton Albion
- Burton Albion0-3Luton
- Burton Albion2-1Luton
- Luton2-0Burton Albion
- Luton0-1Burton Albion
- Burton Albion1-0Luton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Burton Albion 1460 · Luton 1563
| Burton Albion | Draw | Luton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Market | 22% | 24% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luton (rating 1460 vs 1563).
- H2H favours Burton Albion: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Burton Albion | Luton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.9 | 3.7 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Burton Albion 3–1–2 Luton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 England League 1 | Luton | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Burton Albion |
| 30/08/25 England League 1 | Burton Albion | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Luton |
| 27/04/19 England League 1 | Burton Albion | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Luton |
| 22/12/18 England League 1 | Luton | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Burton Albion |
| 11/04/15 England League 2 | Luton | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Burton Albion |
| 22/11/14 England League 2 | Burton Albion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Luton |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 12 | 29 |
| 2 | Stockport | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 15 | 29 |
| 3 | Oxford Utd | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Luton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 24 |
| 5 | Sheff Wed | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Plymouth | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
| 7 | Reading | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 18 | 22 |
| 8 | Bradford | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 22 |
| 9 | Milton Keynes Dons | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 21 |
| 10 | Cambridge Utd | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| 11 | Leicester | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
| 12 | Mansfield | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 19 |
| 13 | Wycombe | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 23 | 18 |
| 14 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 17 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 27 | 17 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 16 |
| 17 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 16 |
| 18 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| 19 | Wigan | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 23 | 14 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 12 |
| 21 | Doncaster | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 12 |
| 22 | Peterborough | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 10 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 9 |
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 33 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Burton Albion | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons | 2-6 L | 1-2 L |
| Wycombe | 0-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Leyton Orient | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Bradford | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Peterborough | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Doncaster | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Huddersfield | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Luton (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Burton Albion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 1 |
0-2 | 2-6 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 31/10 | Wycombe England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 20/10 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 17/10 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 10/10 | Doncaster England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Plymouth England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Mansfield England League 1 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Oxford Utd England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
Luton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 31/10 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/10 | Doncaster England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | Leicester England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 20/10 | Barnsley England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/10 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Wycombe England League 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 14 | 7 | L |
| 10/09 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Burton Albion vs Luton?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Luton win (54%). Probabilities: Burton Albion 21%, draw 25%, Luton 54%.
How many goals are expected in Burton Albion vs Luton?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Burton Albion 1.04 · Luton 1.78), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Luton?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.