Football · England Championship · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: West Ham vs Preston

Team pages: West Ham · Preston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.91Total

West Ham2.96

Preston0.96

1X2

77% 14% 8%

West Ham Draw Preston

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

West Ham 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWLLDL

Preston 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLDLLW

Head-to-head

West Ham 0–1–0 Preston (1 last)

Preston2-2West Ham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · West Ham 1502 · Preston 1434

	West Ham	Draw	Preston
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	77%	15%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours West Ham (rating 1502 vs 1434).
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	West Ham	Preston
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.6	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 7	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.18

X6.25

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.93

2 (+2)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Pinn 1.20
X	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 7.20 ★
2	11.00 → 11.00	Pinn 11.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
23:19 +66’	1.18	6.25	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25	1.20	7.20	11.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · West Ham 0–1–0 Preston

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/07/18 Elite Club Friendlies	Preston	2-2 HT 1-2	West Ham

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	28	14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	30	19	29
3	Stoke	15	9	2	4	24	18	29
4	Wolverhampton	15	8	4	3	26	18	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	23	15	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	22	18	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	29	15	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	24	18	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	37	23	23
10	Sheff Utd	15	6	4	5	21	19	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	20	18	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	32	24	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	22	23	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	27	27	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	18	20	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	23	27	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	16	24	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	20	29	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	13	23	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	13	23	15
21	Lincoln City	15	4	3	8	15	26	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	22	31	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	14	30	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	13	30	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	West Ham	Preston
West Brom	1-3 L	1-1 D
Southampton	2-3 L	1-0 W
Lincoln City	6-0 W	0-1 L
QPR	1-1 D	2-2 D
Millwall	2-2 D	0-1 L
Wrexham	6-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: West Ham (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

West Ham

WWDDWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Blackburn England Championship	0-0	1-2	9	5	L
04/11	Cardiff England Championship	0-3	3-3	6	3	D
31/10	West Brom England Championship	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
24/10	Southampton England Championship	1-3	2-3	13	3	L
17/10	Swansea England Championship	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
14/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	6-0	11	4	W
09/10	QPR England Championship	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
19/09	Millwall England Championship	0-2	2-2	11	5	D
11/09	Wrexham England Championship	2-0	6-0	3	1	W
08/09	Bolton England Championship	2-2	3-2	4	2	W

Preston

LLDLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Southampton England Championship	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
03/11	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-3	2-3	3	1	L
31/10	Stoke England Championship	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
24/10	West Brom England Championship	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
17/10	Wrexham England Championship	1-2	1-4	2	6	L
13/10	Birmingham England Championship	0-3	0-4	3	3	L
10/10	Millwall England Championship	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
19/09	QPR England Championship	2-0	2-2	3	6	D
12/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-0	0-1	16	2	L
08/09	Watford England Championship	1-0	1-2	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in West Ham vs Preston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a West Ham win (77%). Probabilities: West Ham 77%, draw 14%, Preston 8%.

How many goals are expected in West Ham vs Preston?

The model expects 3.91 goals (West Ham 2.96 · Preston 0.96), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in West Ham vs Preston?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.