Football · Colombia Primera A · 10/08, 23:00

Prediction: Aguilas Doradas vs Llaneros

Team pages: Aguilas Doradas · Llaneros

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Aguilas Doradas1.33

Llaneros0.84

1X2

48% 29% 23%

Aguilas Doradas Draw Llaneros

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Aguilas Doradas 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LLDWDWDDWW

Llaneros 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWWWDW

Head-to-head

Aguilas Doradas 1–1–1 Llaneros (3 last)

Llaneros1-1Aguilas Doradas
Llaneros0-1Aguilas Doradas
Aguilas Doradas1-2Llaneros

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguilas Doradas 1543 · Llaneros 1522

	Aguilas Doradas	Draw	Llaneros
Our model	47%	31%	22%
Market	48%	28%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aguilas Doradas	Llaneros
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.4	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.30

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.98
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.15 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:51 +14’	1.95	3.30	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:51	1.98	3.14	4.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguilas Doradas 1–1–1 Llaneros

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Llaneros	1-1 HT 1-0	Aguilas Doradas
20/09/25 Colombia Primera A	Llaneros	0-1 HT 0-0	Aguilas Doradas
07/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	1-2 HT 0-1	Llaneros

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	3	3	0	0	10	0	9
2	Independiente Medellin	3	3	0	0	7	4	9
3	Llaneros	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
4	Aguilas Doradas	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
5	Millonarios	3	2	0	1	3	1	6
6	Deportes Tolima	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
7	Atletico Bucaramanga	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
8	Once Caldas	3	1	1	1	7	4	4
9	Independiente Santa Fe	3	1	1	1	5	4	4
10	Atletico Nacional Medellin	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
11	Deportivo Cali	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
12	Internacional de Bogota	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
13	Fortaleza CEIF	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
14	Alianza	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
15	Deportivo Pereira	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
16	Cucuta Deportivo	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
17	Junior	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
18	Deportivo Pasto	3	0	0	3	3	7	0
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	3	0	0	3	0	6	0
20	Boyaca Chico	2	0	0	2	0	9	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguilas Doradas	Llaneros
Deportivo Pereira	1-1 D	1-0 W
Fortaleza CEIF	0-2 L	3-1 W
Junior	0-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Llaneros (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Aguilas Doradas

LLDWDWDDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
26/07	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
26/05	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Cup	0-1	2-2	2	6	D
21/05	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Cup	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
18/05	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Cup	1-1	4-1	4	7	W
10/05	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Cup	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
03/05	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	2	8	W
26/04	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	4	9	D
19/04	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
11/04	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	8	5	L

Llaneros

LDLWLWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-1	7	6	W
31/07	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
25/07	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
27/05	Boyaca Chico Colombia Cup	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
21/05	Patriotas FC Colombia Cup	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
12/05	Millonarios Colombia Cup	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
08/05	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Cup	3-0	3-0	5	3	W
02/05	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
27/04	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
20/04	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	12	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguilas Doradas vs Llaneros?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aguilas Doradas win (48%). Probabilities: Aguilas Doradas 48%, draw 29%, Llaneros 23%.

How many goals are expected in Aguilas Doradas vs Llaneros?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Aguilas Doradas 1.33 · Llaneros 0.84), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aguilas Doradas vs Llaneros?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.