Football · Colombia Primera A · 17/08, 03:15
Prediction: Once Caldas vs Alianza
Team pages: Once Caldas · Alianza
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Once Caldas1.66
Alianza0.77
1X2
Once Caldas
Draw
Alianza
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Once Caldas
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Alianza
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Once Caldas
1–2–2
Alianza
(5 last)
- Alianza1-1Once Caldas
- Alianza0-0Once Caldas
- Once Caldas1-2Alianza
- Alianza1-0Once Caldas
- Once Caldas1-0Alianza
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Once Caldas 1542 · Alianza 1464
| Once Caldas | Draw | Alianza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Once Caldas (rating 1542 vs 1464).
- H2H favours Alianza: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Once Caldas | Alianza | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.5 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.2 | 5.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Once Caldas 1–2–2 Alianza
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Alianza | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Once Caldas |
| 15/08/25 Colombia Primera A | Alianza | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Once Caldas |
| 02/03/25 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Alianza |
| 06/10/24 Colombia Primera A | Alianza | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Once Caldas |
| 25/03/24 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Alianza |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Llaneros | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Aguilas Doradas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Millonarios | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Fortaleza CEIF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | Independiente Santa Fe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Deportivo Pereira | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alianza | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 16 | Cucuta Deportivo | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 18 | Junior | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 | Boyaca Chico | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Once Caldas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 06/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 03/08 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 30/07 | Envigado FC Colombia Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Envigado FC Colombia Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 12 | D |
| 11/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 9 | D |
Alianza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 27/07 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Real San Andres Colombia Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 03/05 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 27/04 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Once Caldas vs Alianza?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Once Caldas win (58%). Probabilities: Once Caldas 58%, draw 26%, Alianza 16%.
How many goals are expected in Once Caldas vs Alianza?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Once Caldas 1.66 · Alianza 0.77), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Once Caldas vs Alianza?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.