Football · Colombia Primera A · 17/08, 23:05
Prediction: Atletico Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto
Team pages: Atletico Bucaramanga · Deportivo Pasto
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Atletico Bucaramanga1.77
Deportivo Pasto0.86
1X2
Atletico Bucaramanga
Draw
Deportivo Pasto
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Bucaramanga
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Pasto
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Bucaramanga
3–2–1
Deportivo Pasto
(6 last)
- Deportivo Pasto0-0Atletico Bucaramanga
- Deportivo Pasto3-0Atletico Bucaramanga
- Atletico Bucaramanga2-1Deportivo Pasto
- Atletico Bucaramanga0-0Deportivo Pasto
- Deportivo Pasto1-2Atletico Bucaramanga
- Deportivo Pasto1-2Atletico Bucaramanga
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Bucaramanga 1487 · Deportivo Pasto 1426
| Atletico Bucaramanga | Draw | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | 57% | 27% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Bucaramanga (rating 1487 vs 1426).
- H2H favours Atletico Bucaramanga: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Bucaramanga | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.2 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 4.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Bucaramanga 3–2–1 Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Bucaramanga |
| 14/11/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Atletico Bucaramanga |
| 25/05/25 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Bucaramanga | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 25/10/24 Colombia Cup | Atletico Bucaramanga | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 18/10/24 Colombia Cup | Deportivo Pasto | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Atletico Bucaramanga |
| 24/08/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Atletico Bucaramanga |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Llaneros | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Aguilas Doradas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Millonarios | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Fortaleza CEIF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | Independiente Santa Fe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Deportivo Pereira | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alianza | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 16 | Cucuta Deportivo | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 18 | Junior | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 | Boyaca Chico | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Bucaramanga | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|
| Millonarios | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Deportivo Cali | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Bucaramanga (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Bucaramanga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 04/08 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 11 | D |
| 31/07 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 26/07 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Alianza Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Cup |
0-1 | 2-3 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 12/05 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Real San Andres Colombia Cup |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 05/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 29/07 | Bogota FC Colombia Cup |
3-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 22/07 | Bogota FC Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 14/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 04/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Bucaramanga win (58%). Probabilities: Atletico Bucaramanga 58%, draw 26%, Deportivo Pasto 16%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Atletico Bucaramanga 1.77 · Deportivo Pasto 0.86), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.