Football · Colombia Primera A · 18/08, 01:10
Prediction: Millonarios vs Deportivo Cali
Team pages: Millonarios · Deportivo Cali
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.03Total
Millonarios1.37
Deportivo Cali0.66
1X2
Millonarios
Draw
Deportivo Cali
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Millonarios
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Cali
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Millonarios
1–4–1
Deportivo Cali
(6 last)
- Deportivo Cali0-0Millonarios
- Millonarios3-3Deportivo Cali
- Deportivo Cali3-1Millonarios
- Deportivo Cali0-1Millonarios
- Millonarios1-1Deportivo Cali
- Deportivo Cali0-0Millonarios
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Millonarios 1512 · Deportivo Cali 1579
| Millonarios | Draw | Deportivo Cali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 30% | 17% |
| Market | 54% | 27% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Cali (rating 1512 vs 1579).
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Millonarios | Deportivo Cali | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.7 | 2.7 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.3 | 5.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Millonarios 1–4–1 Deportivo Cali
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Cali | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Millonarios |
| 09/08/25 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Deportivo Cali |
| 24/02/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Cali | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Millonarios |
| 05/10/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Cali | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Millonarios |
| 23/03/24 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Cali |
| 25/08/23 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Cali | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Millonarios |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Llaneros | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Aguilas Doradas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Millonarios | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Fortaleza CEIF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | Independiente Santa Fe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Deportivo Pereira | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alianza | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 16 | Cucuta Deportivo | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 18 | Junior | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 | Boyaca Chico | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Millonarios | Deportivo Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Atletico Bucaramanga | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Cali (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Millonarios
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/07 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Colo Colo America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Universitario de Deportes America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Cup |
5-0 | 8-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 20/05 | Sao Paulo Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Patriotas FC Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
Deportivo Cali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 02/08 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 12/07 | Alianza Lima America Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Real San Andres Colombia Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 12 | W |
| 21/05 | Alianza Colombia Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Cup |
2-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 26/04 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Millonarios vs Deportivo Cali?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Millonarios win (54%). Probabilities: Millonarios 54%, draw 29%, Deportivo Cali 18%.
How many goals are expected in Millonarios vs Deportivo Cali?
The model expects 2.03 goals (Millonarios 1.37 · Deportivo Cali 0.66), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Millonarios vs Deportivo Cali?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.