Football · Colombia Primera A · 26/08, 01:00

Prediction: Atletico Bucaramanga vs Aguilas Doradas

Team pages: Atletico Bucaramanga · Aguilas Doradas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Atletico Bucaramanga1.91

Aguilas Doradas1.13

1X2

53% 26% 20%

Atletico Bucaramanga Draw Aguilas Doradas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Bucaramanga 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWDDWD

Aguilas Doradas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWWWDD

Head-to-head

Atletico Bucaramanga 4–1–1 Aguilas Doradas (6 last)

Aguilas Doradas2-1Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Bucaramanga4-0Aguilas Doradas
Aguilas Doradas0-1Atletico Bucaramanga
Aguilas Doradas1-3Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Bucaramanga1-0Aguilas Doradas
Atletico Bucaramanga1-1Aguilas Doradas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Bucaramanga 1497 · Aguilas Doradas 1519

	Atletico Bucaramanga	Draw	Aguilas Doradas
Our model	54%	24%	21%
Market	53%	28%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Bucaramanga: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Bucaramanga	Aguilas Doradas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	5.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.30

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.93 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:34 +16’	1.75	3.30	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:49 +1’	1.93	3.20	4.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Bucaramanga 4–1–1 Aguilas Doradas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	2-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Bucaramanga
25/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	4-0 HT 2-0	Aguilas Doradas
08/03/25 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	0-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Bucaramanga
21/10/24 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	1-3 HT 0-1	Atletico Bucaramanga
27/03/24 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	1-0 HT 1-0	Aguilas Doradas
21/08/23 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	1-1 HT 1-1	Aguilas Doradas

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	5	4	1	0	11	0	13
2	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
3	Independiente Medellin	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	5	2	3	0	6	4	9
5	Llaneros	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
6	Aguilas Doradas	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
7	Millonarios	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
8	Deportivo Cali	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
9	Once Caldas	4	1	2	1	8	5	5
10	Independiente Santa Fe	4	1	2	1	5	4	5
11	Fortaleza CEIF	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
12	Cucuta Deportivo	5	1	2	2	4	9	5
13	Internacional de Bogota	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
14	Jaguares de Cordoba	5	1	1	3	2	7	4
15	Atletico Nacional Medellin	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
16	Deportivo Pereira	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
17	Alianza	4	0	2	2	4	6	2
18	Junior	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
19	Deportivo Pasto	4	0	0	4	3	9	0
20	Boyaca Chico	3	0	0	3	0	10	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Bucaramanga	Aguilas Doradas
Deportes Tolima	0-0 D	1-4 L
Llaneros	1-1 D	1-1 D
Millonarios	1-0 W	1-1 D
Fortaleza CEIF	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Bucaramanga (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Bucaramanga

LWLDLWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
09/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-2	0	6	W
04/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	3	11	D
31/07	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
03/05	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
25/04	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
21/04	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
13/04	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	2-0	5-0	3	7	W
07/04	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	6	6	L

Aguilas Doradas

LWLLDWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	6	10	D
19/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
01/08	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
26/07	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
03/05	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	2	8	W
26/04	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	4	9	D
19/04	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
11/04	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	8	5	L
07/04	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
01/04	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-4	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Aguilas Doradas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Bucaramanga win (53%). Probabilities: Atletico Bucaramanga 53%, draw 26%, Aguilas Doradas 20%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Aguilas Doradas?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Atletico Bucaramanga 1.91 · Aguilas Doradas 1.13), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Aguilas Doradas?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.