Football · Colombia Primera A · 11/10, 03:15
Prediction: Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto
Team pages: Atletico Nacional Medellin · Deportivo Pasto
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Atletico Nacional Medellin2.36
Deportivo Pasto0.59
1X2
Atletico Nacional Medellin
Draw
Deportivo Pasto
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Nacional Medellin
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Pasto
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Nacional Medellin
5–1–0
Deportivo Pasto
(6 last)
- Deportivo Pasto1-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Deportivo Pasto2-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin3-0Deportivo Pasto
- Atletico Nacional Medellin2-1Deportivo Pasto
- Deportivo Pasto0-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Deportivo Pasto1-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1592 · Deportivo Pasto 1446
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | Draw | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| Market | 76% | 17% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1592 vs 1446).
- H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1 | 0.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.9 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.3 | 5.8 / 1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Nacional Medellin 5–1–0 Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 18/10/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 30/04/25 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 06/12/24 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 24/11/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 06/10/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 21 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 20 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 19 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 19 |
| 9 | Cucuta Deportivo | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
| 10 | Llaneros | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| 12 | Once Caldas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 13 |
| 14 | Boyaca Chico | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 11 |
| 16 | Fortaleza CEIF | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 10 |
| 17 | Junior | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 9 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 8 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Nacional Medellin | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|
| Millonarios | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Llaneros | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Internacional de Bogota | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Cali | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Fortaleza CEIF | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| America de Cali | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 25/09 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 21/09 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 17/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 20/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/09 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 06/09 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 13 | D |
| 01/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 28/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 11 | L |
| 09/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 05/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Nacional Medellin win (76%). Probabilities: Atletico Nacional Medellin 76%, draw 17%, Deportivo Pasto 7%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Atletico Nacional Medellin 2.36 · Deportivo Pasto 0.59), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.