Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 14/11, 06:00

Prediction: AC Nagano Parceiro (W) vs Nojima (W)

Team pages: AC Nagano Parceiro (W) · Nojima (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

AC Nagano Parceiro (W)0.76

Nojima (W)1.45

1X2

20% 27% 53%

AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Draw Nojima (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDDLLD

Nojima (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLLDWDDW

Head-to-head

AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 0–6 Nojima (W) (6 last)

AC Nagano Parceiro (W)0-2Nojima (W)
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)0-2Nojima (W)
Nojima (W)3-0AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Nojima (W)3-0AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)2-3Nojima (W)
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)2-3Nojima (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 1384 · Nojima (W) 1553

	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	Draw	Nojima (W)
Our model	19%	29%	52%
Market	21%	25%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nojima (W) (rating 1384 vs 1553).
H2H favours Nojima (W): 6-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	Nojima (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	0.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.60

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +6’	4.33	3.60	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 0–0–6 Nojima (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/26 Japan League Cup Women	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Nojima (W)
04/04/26 Japan Women Empowerment League	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Nojima (W)
20/09/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Nojima (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
16/03/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Nojima (W)	3-0 HT 0-0	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
10/11/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	2-3 HT 1-1	Nojima (W)
25/05/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	2-3 HT 0-1	Nojima (W)

Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	8	6	0	2	16	5	18
2	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	8	5	1	2	11	7	16
3	Cerezo Osaka (W)	8	4	3	1	16	9	15
4	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	8	5	0	3	17	12	15
5	Mynavi Sendai (W)	8	4	1	3	12	12	13
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	8	4	0	4	11	11	12
7	Nojima (W)	8	3	3	2	7	11	12
8	INAC Kobe (W)	7	3	1	3	14	13	10
9	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	8	2	1	5	8	15	7
10	Omiya Ardija (W)	8	2	0	6	5	12	6
11	Albirex Niigata (W)	7	1	2	4	5	9	5
12	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	8	0	4	4	6	12	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	Nojima (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)	2-2 D	2-2 D
Omiya Ardija (W)	0-1 L	4-0 W
Albirex Niigata (W)	0-0 D	1-0 W
Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	0-0 D	1-0 W
INAC Kobe (W)	2-2 D	1-4 L
Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	1-4 L	1-0 W
Mynavi Sendai (W)	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nojima (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

LDLLDDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-2	2	1	D
28/10	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
25/10	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
17/10	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
05/09	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
02/09	INAC Kobe (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-1	2-2	3	1	D
29/08	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-4	1	0	L
23/08	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-2	10	1	L
16/05	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
10/05	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L

Nojima (W)

WWWLLDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
31/10	JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
24/10	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
21/10	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
18/10	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-2	2-2	3	1	D
06/09	INAC Kobe (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-4	3	0	L
30/08	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-5	1	0	L
22/08	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
16/05	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	4-0	3	1	W
09/05	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	2-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Nagano Parceiro (W) vs Nojima (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nojima (W) win (53%). Probabilities: AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 20%, draw 27%, Nojima (W) 53%.

How many goals are expected in AC Nagano Parceiro (W) vs Nojima (W)?

The model expects 2.21 goals (AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 0.76 · Nojima (W) 1.45), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Nagano Parceiro (W) vs Nojima (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.