Football · Colombia Primera A · 06/08, 01:25
Prediction: Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe
Team pages: Deportivo Pereira · Independiente Santa Fe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.91Total
Deportivo Pereira0.73
Independiente Santa Fe1.18
1X2
Deportivo Pereira
Draw
Independiente Santa Fe
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Pereira
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Independiente Santa Fe
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Pereira
2–3–1
Independiente Santa Fe
(6 last)
- Independiente Santa Fe2-2Deportivo Pereira
- Deportivo Pereira2-2Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe2-1Deportivo Pereira
- Independiente Santa Fe1-1Deportivo Pereira
- Deportivo Pereira1-0Independiente Santa Fe
- Deportivo Pereira2-0Independiente Santa Fe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Pereira 1494 · Independiente Santa Fe 1573
| Deportivo Pereira | Draw | Independiente Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 33% | 45% |
| Market | 24% | 29% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Santa Fe (rating 1494 vs 1573).
- H2H favours Deportivo Pereira: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Pereira | Independiente Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.2 | 1.1 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Pereira 2–3–1 Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/26 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Pereira |
| 14/07/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pereira | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 26/01/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Deportivo Pereira |
| 04/10/24 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Deportivo Pereira |
| 18/02/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pereira | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 05/10/23 Colombia Cup | Deportivo Pereira | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aguilas Doradas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 1 | Deportes Tolima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Llaneros | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Once Caldas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | America de Cali | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Deportivo Cali | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Millonarios | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Fortaleza CEIF | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Alianza | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 12 | Deportivo Pereira | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Boyaca Chico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Independiente Santa Fe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 | Junior | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Internacional de Bogota | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 | Cucuta Deportivo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Pereira | Independiente Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Aguilas Doradas | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| America de Cali | 0-1 L | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Pereira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 26/05 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 04/05 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 19/04 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 10/04 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Caracas Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 24/07 | Caracas Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 28/05 | Penarol Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 20/05 | Platense Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 07/05 | Corinthians Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente Santa Fe win (46%). Probabilities: Deportivo Pereira 23%, draw 31%, Independiente Santa Fe 46%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe?
The model expects 1.91 goals (Deportivo Pereira 0.73 · Independiente Santa Fe 1.18), with a 59% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Santa Fe?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.