Football · Colombia Primera A · 11/08, 01:00
Prediction: Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios
Team pages: Independiente Medellin · Millonarios
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.37Total
Independiente Medellin1.24
Millonarios1.14
1X2
Independiente Medellin
Draw
Millonarios
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Medellin
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Millonarios
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Medellin
3–2–1
Millonarios
(6 last)
- Millonarios0-0Independiente Medellin
- Independiente Medellin1-0Millonarios
- Millonarios0-1Independiente Medellin
- Independiente Medellin1-1Millonarios
- Millonarios5-0Independiente Medellin
- Independiente Medellin2-1Millonarios
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Medellin 1537 · Millonarios 1512
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Millonarios | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 30% | 32% |
| Market | 38% | 29% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Medellin | Millonarios | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.3 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.1 | 2.4 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Medellin 3–2–1 Millonarios
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Medellin |
| 04/08/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Millonarios |
| 16/02/25 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Independiente Medellin |
| 19/07/24 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Millonarios |
| 21/01/24 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Independiente Medellin |
| 01/12/23 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Millonarios |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Llaneros | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Aguilas Doradas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Independiente Santa Fe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Deportivo Cali | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Fortaleza CEIF | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | Alianza | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Cucuta Deportivo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 17 | Junior | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 | Boyaca Chico | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/07 | Vasco da Gama Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 23/07 | Vasco da Gama Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 02/06 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Itagui Leones Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 1 | D |
| 27/05 | Estudiantes LP Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Cusco FC Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Orsomarso Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
Millonarios
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/07 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Colo Colo America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Universitario de Deportes America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Cup |
5-0 | 8-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 20/05 | Sao Paulo Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Patriotas FC Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Medellin win (38%). Probabilities: Independiente Medellin 38%, draw 30%, Millonarios 33%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?
The model expects 2.37 goals (Independiente Medellin 1.24 · Millonarios 1.14), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.