Football · Colombia Primera A · 17/08, 21:00
Prediction: Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin
Team pages: Internacional de Bogota · Independiente Medellin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Internacional de Bogota1.37
Independiente Medellin1.37
1X2
Internacional de Bogota
Draw
Independiente Medellin
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Internacional de Bogota
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Independiente Medellin
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Internacional de Bogota
1–0
Independiente Medellin
(1 last)
- Independiente Medellin1-2Internacional de Bogota
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Internacional de Bogota 1487 · Independiente Medellin 1550
| Internacional de Bogota | Draw | Independiente Medellin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market | 35% | 30% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Medellin (rating 1487 vs 1550).
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Internacional de Bogota | Independiente Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.1 | 2.4 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional de Bogota 1–0–0 Independiente Medellin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Internacional de Bogota |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Llaneros | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Aguilas Doradas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Millonarios | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Fortaleza CEIF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | Independiente Santa Fe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Deportivo Pereira | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alianza | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 16 | Cucuta Deportivo | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 18 | Junior | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 | Boyaca Chico | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Internacional de Bogota
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 30/07 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 22/07 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 13/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-7 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 27/04 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
Independiente Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/07 | Vasco da Gama Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 23/07 | Vasco da Gama Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 02/06 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Itagui Leones Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 1 | D |
| 27/05 | Estudiantes LP Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Cusco FC Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Orsomarso Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional de Bogota win (36%). Probabilities: Internacional de Bogota 36%, draw 29%, Independiente Medellin 35%.
How many goals are expected in Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Internacional de Bogota 1.37 · Independiente Medellin 1.37), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.