Football · Colombia Primera A · 26/08, 03:05
Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe vs Jaguares de Cordoba
Team pages: Independiente Santa Fe · Jaguares de Cordoba
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Independiente Santa Fe1.87
Jaguares de Cordoba0.61
1X2
Independiente Santa Fe
Draw
Jaguares de Cordoba
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Santa Fe
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Jaguares de Cordoba
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Santa Fe
2–1–3
Jaguares de Cordoba
(6 last)
- Jaguares de Cordoba3-1Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe3-0Jaguares de Cordoba
- Jaguares de Cordoba1-0Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe1-0Jaguares de Cordoba
- Jaguares de Cordoba2-2Independiente Santa Fe
- Jaguares de Cordoba2-1Independiente Santa Fe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Santa Fe 1575 · Jaguares de Cordoba 1471
| Independiente Santa Fe | Draw | Jaguares de Cordoba | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 23% | 10% |
| Market | 67% | 22% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Santa Fe (rating 1575 vs 1471).
- H2H favours Jaguares de Cordoba: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Santa Fe | Jaguares de Cordoba | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.4 | 1.9 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 5.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe 2–1–3 Jaguares de Cordoba
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Jaguares de Cordoba | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 15/11/24 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Jaguares de Cordoba |
| 29/04/24 Colombia Primera A | Jaguares de Cordoba | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 20/07/23 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Jaguares de Cordoba |
| 27/01/23 Colombia Primera A | Jaguares de Cordoba | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 17/10/22 Colombia Primera A | Jaguares de Cordoba | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Llaneros | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Aguilas Doradas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | Millonarios | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Deportivo Cali | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Independiente Santa Fe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | Fortaleza CEIF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Cucuta Deportivo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 15 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Alianza | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 18 | Junior | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 | Boyaca Chico | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Santa Fe | Jaguares de Cordoba |
|---|---|---|
| Boyaca Chico | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Once Caldas | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Internacional de Bogota | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Pasto | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Santa Fe (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/04 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
Jaguares de Cordoba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 10/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 06/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 17/04 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 07/04 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe vs Jaguares de Cordoba?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe win (67%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe 67%, draw 23%, Jaguares de Cordoba 11%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe vs Jaguares de Cordoba?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Independiente Santa Fe 1.87 · Jaguares de Cordoba 0.61), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Jaguares de Cordoba?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.