Football · Colombia Primera A · 28/08, 03:15

Prediction: Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima

Team pages: Once Caldas · Deportes Tolima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Once Caldas1.37

Deportes Tolima1.12

1X2

42% 29% 30%

Once Caldas Draw Deportes Tolima

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Once Caldas 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWLDWDLD

Deportes Tolima 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWWLWD

Head-to-head

Once Caldas 0–2–4 Deportes Tolima (6 last)

Deportes Tolima2-1Once Caldas
Once Caldas0-1Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima2-0Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima1-0Once Caldas
Once Caldas0-0Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima1-1Once Caldas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Once Caldas 1538 · Deportes Tolima 1518

	Once Caldas	Draw	Deportes Tolima
Our model	41%	29%	29%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportes Tolima: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Once Caldas	Deportes Tolima
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.7	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.25

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:46 +10’	2.20	3.25	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Once Caldas 0–2–4 Deportes Tolima

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	2-1 HT 0-0	Once Caldas
24/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportes Tolima
11/03/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	2-0 HT 1-0	Once Caldas
08/12/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	1-0 HT 1-0	Once Caldas
22/11/24 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportes Tolima
26/10/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	1-1 HT 0-0	Once Caldas

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	5	4	1	0	11	0	13
2	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
3	Independiente Medellin	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	5	2	3	0	6	4	9
5	Llaneros	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
6	Aguilas Doradas	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
7	Millonarios	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
8	Deportivo Cali	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
9	Once Caldas	4	1	2	1	8	5	5
10	Independiente Santa Fe	4	1	2	1	5	4	5
11	Fortaleza CEIF	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
12	Cucuta Deportivo	5	1	2	2	4	9	5
13	Internacional de Bogota	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
14	Jaguares de Cordoba	5	1	1	3	2	7	4
15	Atletico Nacional Medellin	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
16	Deportivo Pereira	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
17	Alianza	4	0	2	2	4	6	2
18	Junior	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
19	Deportivo Pasto	4	0	0	4	3	9	0
20	Boyaca Chico	3	0	0	3	0	10	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Once Caldas	Deportes Tolima
Junior	2-2 D	2-1 W
Atletico Nacional Medellin	1-0 W	1-3 L
Internacional de Bogota	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Once Caldas

DWDWLDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
06/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
03/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
27/07	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	3-1	5-1	7	3	W
14/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	11	12	D
11/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
02/05	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
26/04	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	0	9	D
21/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
10/04	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	8	6	D

Deportes Tolima

DWWLLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
09/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	8	3	W
05/08	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-2	2-3	9	5	L
01/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
26/07	Junior Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
24/05	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-3	4	3	L
17/05	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
14/05	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
10/05	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
03/05	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	5	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Once Caldas win (42%). Probabilities: Once Caldas 42%, draw 29%, Deportes Tolima 30%.

How many goals are expected in Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Once Caldas 1.37 · Deportes Tolima 1.12), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.