Football · Belgium First Division B · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Lierse Kempenzonen vs Francs Borains

Team pages: Lierse Kempenzonen · Francs Borains

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

Lierse Kempenzonen1.1

Francs Borains1.35

1X2

30% 28% 42%

Lierse Kempenzonen Draw Francs Borains

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lierse Kempenzonen 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWDLWDDL

Francs Borains 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWLWWW

Head-to-head

Lierse Kempenzonen 3–3 Francs Borains (6 last)

Lierse Kempenzonen0-2Francs Borains
Francs Borains0-1Lierse Kempenzonen
Francs Borains1-0Lierse Kempenzonen
Lierse Kempenzonen4-0Francs Borains
Lierse Kempenzonen3-1Francs Borains
Francs Borains2-0Lierse Kempenzonen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lierse Kempenzonen 1478 · Francs Borains 1543

	Lierse Kempenzonen	Draw	Francs Borains
Our model	29%	30%	41%
Market	31%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francs Borains (rating 1478 vs 1543).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lierse Kempenzonen	Francs Borains
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.30

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.31
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.41 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:09 +1’	2.90	3.30	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +43’	2.83	3.28	2.39
17:32 +85’	2.86▲	3.31▲	2.41▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lierse Kempenzonen 3–0–3 Francs Borains

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Belgium First Division B	Lierse Kempenzonen	0-2 HT 0-0	Francs Borains
13/12/25 Belgium First Division B	Francs Borains	0-1 HT 0-0	Lierse Kempenzonen
02/03/25 Belgium First Division B	Francs Borains	1-0 HT 0-0	Lierse Kempenzonen
06/10/24 Belgium First Division B	Lierse Kempenzonen	4-0 HT 2-0	Francs Borains
02/03/24 Belgium First Division B	Lierse Kempenzonen	3-1 HT 1-0	Francs Borains
17/09/23 Belgium First Division B	Francs Borains	2-0 HT 1-0	Lierse Kempenzonen

Standings · Belgium First Division B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk	6	5	0	1	13	5	15
2	FCV Dender EH	6	5	0	1	8	2	15
3	Eupen	5	4	0	1	11	5	12
4	Francs Borains	5	4	0	1	9	4	12
5	Excelsior Virton	5	3	1	1	8	2	10
6	KSC Lokeren Temse	6	3	1	2	13	11	10
7	Sporting Hasselt	6	3	0	3	4	7	9
8	Club Brugge II	5	2	2	1	11	10	8
9	Genk II	6	2	1	3	12	14	7
10	RFC Liege	6	1	2	3	10	13	5
11	Gent II	5	1	2	2	6	9	5
12	Lierse Kempenzonen	5	1	2	2	4	8	5
13	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	6	1	0	5	7	12	3
14	RFC Seraing	6	0	2	4	6	12	2
15	Anderlecht II	6	0	1	5	7	15	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lierse Kempenzonen	Francs Borains
RFC Liege	0-0 D	2-1 W
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	2-1 W	0-4 L
Excelsior Virton	0-3 L	1-0 W
KSC Lokeren Temse	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Francs Borains (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lierse Kempenzonen

LDLWDLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk Belgium First Division B	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
06/09	RFC Liege Belgium First Division B	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
30/08	Seraing United Belgium First Division B	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen Belgium First Division B	0-0	2-1	7	6	W
15/08	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Division B	0-1	0-3	8	5	L
17/04	KSC Lokeren Temse Belgium First Division B	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
11/04	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Division B	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
04/04	Francs Borains Belgium First Division B	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
21/03	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Division B	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
13/03	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen Belgium First Division B	1-0	1-2	2	9	L

Francs Borains

LWWDLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Anderlecht II Belgium First Division B	1-2	3-2	7	9	W
06/09	KSC Lokeren Temse Belgium First Division B	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
30/08	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Division B	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
23/08	Sporting Hasselt Belgium First Division B	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
17/08	RFC Liege Belgium First Division B	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
17/04	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen Belgium First Division B	0-1	0-4	4	2	L
11/04	Genk II Belgium First Division B	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
04/04	Lierse Kempenzonen Belgium First Division B	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
21/03	KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division B	1-0	4-1	8	3	W
15/03	Lommel Belgium First Division B	1-3	1-3	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lierse Kempenzonen vs Francs Borains?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Francs Borains win (42%). Probabilities: Lierse Kempenzonen 30%, draw 28%, Francs Borains 42%.

How many goals are expected in Lierse Kempenzonen vs Francs Borains?

The model expects 2.45 goals (Lierse Kempenzonen 1.1 · Francs Borains 1.35), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lierse Kempenzonen vs Francs Borains?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.