Football · Czechia 2. Liga · 24/07, 18:00

Prediction: Dukla Praha vs Arsenal Ceska Lipa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Dukla Praha2.13

Arsenal Ceska Lipa0.97

1X2

63% 21% 16%

Dukla Praha Draw Arsenal Ceska Lipa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dukla Praha 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLLDD

Arsenal Ceska Lipa 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWLWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dukla Praha 1451 · Arsenal Ceska Lipa 1578

	Dukla Praha	Draw	Arsenal Ceska Lipa
Our model	63%	22%	15%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arsenal Ceska Lipa (rating 1451 vs 1578).
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dukla Praha	Arsenal Ceska Lipa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	3.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.8	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 3.9

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +2’	1.40	4.50	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Czechia 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Prostejov	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dukla Praha	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banik Ostrava B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Silon Taborsko	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Sellier & Bellot Vlasim	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vysocina Jihlava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Arsenal Ceska Lipa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Trinec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Pribram	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Usti nad Labem	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Viktoria Zizkov	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	MFK Karvina	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Opava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SK Kladno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Slavia Prague B	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Dukla Praha

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	FK Usti nad Labem Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-2	5	0	D
04/07	Slovan Liberec Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-2	1	1	D
27/06	FC Sellier & Bellot Vlasim Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-2	7	1	L
26/06	Mlada Boleslav Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
20/06	FC Sellier & Bellot Vlasim Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-2	3	1	W
23/05	Banik Ostrava Czechia First League	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
16/05	FK Teplice Czechia First League	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
12/05	Mlada Boleslav Czechia First League	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
09/05	Slovacko Czechia First League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
02/05	FC Trinity Zlin Czechia First League	1-1	1-2	6	4	L

Arsenal Ceska Lipa

WWLWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	FC Pisek Europe Friendlies	1-2	2-2	6	1	D
08/07	Varnsdorf Europe Friendlies	2-0	6-0	7	2	W
13/06	SK Kladno Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-3	7	5	L
10/06	SK Kladno Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
03/06	FK Teplice B Czechia 3. Liga	3-0	4-0	10	1	W
30/05	Varnsdorf Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	4-2	–	–	W
24/05	Slovan Velvary Czechia 3. Liga	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
21/05	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
16/05	Banik Most-Sous Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
10/05	Tj Sokol Rozstani Czechia 5. Liga	3-1	8-2	0	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dukla Praha vs Arsenal Ceska Lipa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dukla Praha win (63%). Probabilities: Dukla Praha 63%, draw 21%, Arsenal Ceska Lipa 16%.

How many goals are expected in Dukla Praha vs Arsenal Ceska Lipa?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Dukla Praha 2.13 · Arsenal Ceska Lipa 0.97), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Arsenal Ceska Lipa?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.