Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 13/11, 17:30

Prediction: ND Dravinja vs NK Krka

Team pages: ND Dravinja · NK Krka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

ND Dravinja1.49

NK Krka1.51

1X2

36% 26% 37%

ND Dravinja Draw NK Krka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Dravinja 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLLDWWWL

NK Krka 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLWWW

Head-to-head

ND Dravinja 3–2–1 NK Krka (6 last)

ND Dravinja1-0NK Krka
NK Krka2-2ND Dravinja
ND Dravinja0-0NK Krka
NK Krka0-3ND Dravinja
NK Krka2-1ND Dravinja
ND Dravinja3-0NK Krka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Dravinja 1517 · NK Krka 1506

	ND Dravinja	Draw	NK Krka
Our model	36%	27%	37%
Market	36%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours ND Dravinja: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Dravinja	NK Krka
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +1’	2.45	3.40	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ND Dravinja 3–2–1 NK Krka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Krka
18/10/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	2-2 HT 0-2	ND Dravinja
15/03/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Krka
01/09/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	0-3 HT 0-1	ND Dravinja
17/11/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	2-1 HT 1-0	ND Dravinja
25/10/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	3-0 HT 1-0	NK Krka

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	14	11	1	2	27	10	34
2	NK Triglav Kranj	14	10	1	3	31	13	31
3	ND Beltinci	14	10	1	3	42	18	31
4	NK Bilje	14	8	0	6	26	27	24
5	NK Bistrica	14	7	2	5	19	17	23
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	14	7	1	6	25	17	22
7	NK Rudar Velenje	14	7	1	6	26	21	22
8	NK Jesenice	14	5	4	5	22	21	19
9	Jadran Dekani	14	5	4	5	8	8	19
10	ND Slovan Ljubljana	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
11	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	14	4	4	6	13	18	16
12	NK Krka	14	5	1	8	18	22	16
13	NK Vrhnika	14	4	2	8	12	25	14
14	ND Dravinja	14	4	2	8	20	29	14
15	NK Krsko	14	2	3	9	10	30	9
16	NK Brezice	14	1	4	9	12	28	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Dravinja	NK Krka
ND Beltinci	1-3 L	0-3 L
Jadran Dekani	1-0 W	1-2 L
NK Krsko	6-0 W	1-0 W
NK Jesenice	2-1 W	2-0 W
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	1-1 D	2-3 L
Tabor Sezana	1-5 L	1-2 L
NK Brezice	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: ND Dravinja (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Dravinja

DLWLLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-3	8	2	L
31/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
28/10	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	6-0	12	3	W
16/10	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
11/10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
03/10	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	1-4	1	3	L
28/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
20/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
11/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-5	1	6	L
05/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	2	4	D

NK Krka

LWWLLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
02/11	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	4-2	4	2	W
27/10	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
17/10	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
03/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
20/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	9	7	W
05/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
28/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Dravinja vs NK Krka?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Krka win (37%). Probabilities: ND Dravinja 36%, draw 26%, NK Krka 37%.

How many goals are expected in ND Dravinja vs NK Krka?

The model expects 3 goals (ND Dravinja 1.49 · NK Krka 1.51), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Dravinja vs NK Krka?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.