Football · Poland I Liga · 20/11, 18:00

Prediction: Chrobry Glogow vs Puszcza Niepolomice

Team pages: Chrobry Glogow · Puszcza Niepolomice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Chrobry Glogow1.31

Puszcza Niepolomice1.13

1X2

40% 29% 31%

Chrobry Glogow Draw Puszcza Niepolomice

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Chrobry Glogow 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDLLLDDD

Puszcza Niepolomice 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWLWDD

Head-to-head

Chrobry Glogow 2–3–1 Puszcza Niepolomice (6 last)

Chrobry Glogow1-2Puszcza Niepolomice
Puszcza Niepolomice0-0Chrobry Glogow
Puszcza Niepolomice0-1Chrobry Glogow
Chrobry Glogow1-0Puszcza Niepolomice
Chrobry Glogow2-2Puszcza Niepolomice
Puszcza Niepolomice2-2Chrobry Glogow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chrobry Glogow 1465 · Puszcza Niepolomice 1480

	Chrobry Glogow	Draw	Puszcza Niepolomice
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chrobry Glogow: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chrobry Glogow	Puszcza Niepolomice
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	2.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.35
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.21
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.10 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:58 +1’	2.20	3.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +11’	2.35	3.21	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chrobry Glogow 2–3–1 Puszcza Niepolomice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Poland I Liga	Chrobry Glogow	1-2 HT 0-1	Puszcza Niepolomice
31/08/25 Poland I Liga	Puszcza Niepolomice	0-0 HT 0-0	Chrobry Glogow
03/06/23 Poland I Liga	Puszcza Niepolomice	0-1 HT 0-0	Chrobry Glogow
06/11/22 Poland I Liga	Chrobry Glogow	1-0 HT 0-0	Puszcza Niepolomice
03/04/22 Poland I Liga	Chrobry Glogow	2-2 HT 1-0	Puszcza Niepolomice
19/09/21 Poland I Liga	Puszcza Niepolomice	2-2 HT 1-1	Chrobry Glogow

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Polonia Warsaw	14	7	4	3	23	15	25
2	LKS Lodz	14	7	4	3	17	12	25
3	Polonia Bytom	14	6	6	2	24	20	24
4	Lechia Gdansk	14	7	1	6	25	22	22
5	Ruch Chorzow	14	6	4	4	17	14	22
6	Termalica BB Nieciecza	14	6	4	4	22	20	22
7	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	14	6	3	5	20	14	21
8	Miedz Legnica	14	5	5	4	20	13	20
9	Warta Poznan	14	6	1	7	20	20	19
10	MKP Pogon Siedlce	14	5	4	5	17	17	19
11	Stal Mielec	14	5	4	5	19	27	19
12	Arka Gdynia	14	5	3	6	19	17	18
13	Stal Rzeszow	14	5	3	6	18	25	18
14	Chrobry Glogow	14	3	6	5	15	17	15
15	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	14	2	9	3	17	20	15
16	Puszcza Niepolomice	14	4	2	8	16	20	14
17	Unia Skierniewice	14	4	2	8	20	26	14
18	Odra Opole	14	3	3	8	11	21	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chrobry Glogow	Puszcza Niepolomice
Termalica BB Nieciecza	2-2 D	0-2 L
Polonia Bytom	2-3 L	0-1 L
MKP Pogon Siedlce	0-0 D	3-1 W
Miedz Legnica	1-1 D	1-1 D
Warta Poznan	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chrobry Glogow

LWDDLLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	0-1	2-2	6	5	D
03/11	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
24/10	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
17/10	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	0-3	2-3	6	2	L
10/10	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-3	0-4	5	1	L
19/09	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
12/09	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
05/09	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
30/08	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
21/08	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L

Puszcza Niepolomice

LWLLLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	0-1	1-1	2	8	D
02/11	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
24/10	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
19/10	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
15/10	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-0	3-1	5	7	W
11/10	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
18/09	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	2-2	2-3	4	3	L
11/09	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
29/08	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
23/08	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chrobry Glogow vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chrobry Glogow win (40%). Probabilities: Chrobry Glogow 40%, draw 29%, Puszcza Niepolomice 31%.

How many goals are expected in Chrobry Glogow vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Chrobry Glogow 1.31 · Puszcza Niepolomice 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chrobry Glogow vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.