Football · Poland I Liga · 22/11, 14:30

Prediction: Lechia Gdansk vs Odra Opole

Team pages: Lechia Gdansk · Odra Opole

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Lechia Gdansk1.69

Odra Opole1.28

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Lechia Gdansk Draw Odra Opole

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lechia Gdansk 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWLWL

Odra Opole 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDDLLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Lechia Gdansk 1–1–0 Odra Opole (2 last)

Lechia Gdansk2-1Odra Opole
Odra Opole0-0Lechia Gdansk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lechia Gdansk 1532 · Odra Opole 1452

	Lechia Gdansk	Draw	Odra Opole
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lechia Gdansk (rating 1532 vs 1452).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lechia Gdansk	Odra Opole
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.3	0.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	1.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.71
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.55 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:00 +13’	1.95	3.40	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +7’	1.95	3.71	3.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lechia Gdansk 1–1–0 Odra Opole

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/24 Poland I Liga	Lechia Gdansk	2-1 HT 1-1	Odra Opole
16/09/23 Poland I Liga	Odra Opole	0-0 HT 0-0	Lechia Gdansk

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Polonia Warsaw	14	7	4	3	23	15	25
2	LKS Lodz	14	7	4	3	17	12	25
3	Polonia Bytom	14	6	6	2	24	20	24
4	Lechia Gdansk	14	7	1	6	25	22	22
5	Ruch Chorzow	14	6	4	4	17	14	22
6	Termalica BB Nieciecza	14	6	4	4	22	20	22
7	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	14	6	3	5	20	14	21
8	Miedz Legnica	14	5	5	4	20	13	20
9	Warta Poznan	14	6	1	7	20	20	19
10	MKP Pogon Siedlce	14	5	4	5	17	17	19
11	Stal Mielec	14	5	4	5	19	27	19
12	Arka Gdynia	14	5	3	6	19	17	18
13	Stal Rzeszow	14	5	3	6	18	25	18
14	Chrobry Glogow	14	3	6	5	15	17	15
15	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	14	2	9	3	17	20	15
16	Puszcza Niepolomice	14	4	2	8	16	20	14
17	Unia Skierniewice	14	4	2	8	20	26	14
18	Odra Opole	14	3	3	8	11	21	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lechia Gdansk	Odra Opole
Polonia Bytom	0-1 L	0-3 L
Unia Skierniewice	3-2 W	3-5 L
Stal Rzeszow	2-1 W	0-1 L
Stal Mielec	7-1 W	1-1 D
Miedz Legnica	2-1 W	1-0 W
Termalica BB Nieciecza	1-2 L	0-1 L
MKP Pogon Siedlce	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Lechia Gdansk (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lechia Gdansk

WWLWWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
31/10	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	1-2	3-2	7	3	W
24/10	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
18/10	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
12/10	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
19/09	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	2-1	7-1	5	5	W
13/09	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
04/09	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	1-1	4-2	3	2	W
21/08	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

Odra Opole

DDDLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	1-0	3-5	6	9	L
02/11	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
25/10	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
16/10	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
11/10	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/09	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
13/09	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
05/09	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/08	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lechia Gdansk vs Odra Opole?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lechia Gdansk win (46%). Probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 46%, draw 26%, Odra Opole 28%.

How many goals are expected in Lechia Gdansk vs Odra Opole?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Lechia Gdansk 1.69 · Odra Opole 1.28), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Odra Opole?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.