Football · Poland I Liga · 21/11, 15:30

Prediction: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia

Team pages: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Arka Gdynia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki1.58

Arka Gdynia1.24

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Draw Arka Gdynia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Arka Gdynia 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	Arka Gdynia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.83

Under 2.51.96

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.45 → 3.45	Pinn 3.45
X	3.47 → 3.47	Pinn 3.47
2	2.07 → 2.07	Pinn 2.07

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +11’	3.45	3.47	2.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Polonia Warsaw	14	7	4	3	23	15	25
2	LKS Lodz	14	7	4	3	17	12	25
3	Polonia Bytom	14	6	6	2	24	20	24
4	Lechia Gdansk	14	7	1	6	25	22	22
5	Ruch Chorzow	14	6	4	4	17	14	22
6	Termalica BB Nieciecza	14	6	4	4	22	20	22
7	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	14	6	3	5	20	14	21
8	Miedz Legnica	14	5	5	4	20	13	20
9	Warta Poznan	14	6	1	7	20	20	19
10	MKP Pogon Siedlce	14	5	4	5	17	17	19
11	Stal Mielec	14	5	4	5	19	27	19
12	Arka Gdynia	14	5	3	6	19	17	18
13	Stal Rzeszow	14	5	3	6	18	25	18
14	Chrobry Glogow	14	3	6	5	15	17	15
15	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	14	2	9	3	17	20	15
16	Puszcza Niepolomice	14	4	2	8	16	20	14
17	Unia Skierniewice	14	4	2	8	20	26	14
18	Odra Opole	14	3	3	8	11	21	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	Arka Gdynia
MKP Pogon Siedlce	1-2 L	1-2 L
Polonia Warsaw	0-1 L	1-2 L
Chrobry Glogow	4-0 W	0-0 D
LKS Lodz	2-0 W	1-1 D
Warta Poznan	1-0 W	0-3 L
Termalica BB Nieciecza	2-2 D	3-1 W
Polonia Bytom	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	1-2	1-2	6	4	L
30/10	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
25/10	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
17/10	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/10	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	3-0	4-0	1	1	W
19/09	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
13/09	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	1-0	2-3	3	6	L
04/09	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
28/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
22/08	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-2	2-2	6	5	D

Arka Gdynia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	0-1	3-1	1	4	W
03/11	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
24/10	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	3-0	3-1	4	5	W
18/10	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
10/10	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	1-1	1-2	5	0	L
20/09	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
12/09	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
06/09	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
30/08	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
23/08	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win (44%). Probabilities: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 44%, draw 27%, Arka Gdynia 29%.

How many goals are expected in Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1.58 · Arka Gdynia 1.24), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.