Football · Poland I Liga · 21/11, 15:30

Prediction: Polonia Warsaw vs Stal Mielec

Team pages: Polonia Warsaw · Stal Mielec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

Polonia Warsaw2.23

Stal Mielec1.32

1X2

56% 23% 20%

Polonia Warsaw Draw Stal Mielec

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Warsaw 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWWDDW

Stal Mielec 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWLDWW

Head-to-head

Polonia Warsaw 2–0 Stal Mielec (2 last)

Polonia Warsaw5-2Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec1-3Polonia Warsaw

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Warsaw 1577 · Stal Mielec 1473

	Polonia Warsaw	Draw	Stal Mielec
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Warsaw (rating 1577 vs 1473).
H2H favours Polonia Warsaw: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Warsaw	Stal Mielec
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.7	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.70

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.64
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.10 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.71

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +8’	1.60	3.70	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +11’	1.64	4.10	4.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Warsaw 2–0–0 Stal Mielec

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Poland I Liga	Polonia Warsaw	5-2 HT 1-0	Stal Mielec
02/08/25 Poland I Liga	Stal Mielec	1-3 HT 0-2	Polonia Warsaw

Standings · Poland I Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Polonia Warsaw	14	7	4	3	23	15	25
2	LKS Lodz	14	7	4	3	17	12	25
3	Polonia Bytom	14	6	6	2	24	20	24
4	Lechia Gdansk	14	7	1	6	25	22	22
5	Ruch Chorzow	14	6	4	4	17	14	22
6	Termalica BB Nieciecza	14	6	4	4	22	20	22
7	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	14	6	3	5	20	14	21
8	Miedz Legnica	14	5	5	4	20	13	20
9	Warta Poznan	14	6	1	7	20	20	19
10	MKP Pogon Siedlce	14	5	4	5	17	17	19
11	Stal Mielec	14	5	4	5	19	27	19
12	Arka Gdynia	14	5	3	6	19	17	18
13	Stal Rzeszow	14	5	3	6	18	25	18
14	Chrobry Glogow	14	3	6	5	15	17	15
15	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	14	2	9	3	17	20	15
16	Puszcza Niepolomice	14	4	2	8	16	20	14
17	Unia Skierniewice	14	4	2	8	20	26	14
18	Odra Opole	14	3	3	8	11	21	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Warsaw	Stal Mielec
Warta Poznan	3-0 W	2-1 W
LKS Lodz	1-1 D	0-4 L
Miedz Legnica	1-1 D	0-3 L
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1-0 W	1-0 W
Chrobry Glogow	2-0 W	0-0 D
Lechia Gdansk	2-4 L	1-7 L
Termalica BB Nieciecza	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Polonia Warsaw (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polonia Warsaw

WLLDWWWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	2-0	3-0	0	7	W
02/11	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
23/10	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
17/10	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
10/10	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
19/09	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
11/09	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
05/09	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-2	1-2	2	6	L
29/08	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	1-1	2-4	6	2	L
22/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-0	3-1	4	3	W

Stal Mielec

LLDLLWLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
30/10	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
24/10	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
17/10	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	0-1	0-3	8	5	L
11/10	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	2-0	2-1	7	0	W
19/09	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	1-2	1-7	8	5	L
14/09	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-1	1-2	8	7	L
05/09	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
29/08	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
23/08	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-1	0-4	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Warsaw vs Stal Mielec?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Polonia Warsaw win (56%). Probabilities: Polonia Warsaw 56%, draw 23%, Stal Mielec 20%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Warsaw vs Stal Mielec?

The model expects 3.54 goals (Polonia Warsaw 2.23 · Stal Mielec 1.32), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Warsaw vs Stal Mielec?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.