Football · Poland I Liga · 21/11, 15:30
Prediction: Ruch Chorzow vs Warta Poznan
Team pages: Ruch Chorzow · Warta Poznan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Ruch Chorzow1.72
Warta Poznan0.9
1X2
Ruch Chorzow
Draw
Warta Poznan
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Ruch Chorzow
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Warta Poznan
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ruch Chorzow
2–3–0
Warta Poznan
(5 last)
- Ruch Chorzow0-0Warta Poznan
- Warta Poznan0-2Ruch Chorzow
- Ruch Chorzow2-1Warta Poznan
- Ruch Chorzow0-0Warta Poznan
- Warta Poznan2-2Ruch Chorzow
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ruch Chorzow 1537 · Warta Poznan 1495
| Ruch Chorzow | Draw | Warta Poznan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ruch Chorzow (rating 1537 vs 1495).
- H2H favours Ruch Chorzow: 2-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ruch Chorzow | Warta Poznan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.9 | 1.9 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ruch Chorzow 2–3–0 Warta Poznan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/25 Europe Friendlies | Ruch Chorzow | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Warta Poznan |
| 03/05/25 Poland I Liga | Warta Poznan | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Ruch Chorzow |
| 25/10/24 Poland I Liga | Ruch Chorzow | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Warta Poznan |
| 17/02/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Ruch Chorzow | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Warta Poznan |
| 14/08/23 Poland Ekstraklasa | Warta Poznan | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Ruch Chorzow |
Standings · Poland I Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Warsaw | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | LKS Lodz | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Polonia Bytom | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 20 | 24 |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 22 | 22 |
| 5 | Ruch Chorzow | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 22 |
| 6 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 22 |
| 7 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 21 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 20 |
| 9 | Warta Poznan | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 19 |
| 10 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 19 |
| 11 | Stal Mielec | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 27 | 19 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 17 | 18 |
| 13 | Stal Rzeszow | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 18 |
| 14 | Chrobry Glogow | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 15 |
| 15 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 14 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 16 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 26 | 14 |
| 18 | Odra Opole | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 21 | 12 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ruch Chorzow | Warta Poznan |
|---|---|---|
| Stal Mielec | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| LKS Lodz | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 3-3 D | 1-1 D |
| Unia Skierniewice | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Chrobry Glogow | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Ruch Chorzow (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ruch Chorzow
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Stal Mielec Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 03/11 | MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 25/10 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 16/10 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | LKS Lodz Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/09 | Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 07/09 | Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 30/08 | Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 24/08 | Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 9 | W |
Warta Poznan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 31/10 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 26/10 | LKS Lodz Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 16/10 | Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Stal Mielec Poland I Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 18/09 | Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 04/09 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 21/08 | Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ruch Chorzow vs Warta Poznan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ruch Chorzow win (56%). Probabilities: Ruch Chorzow 56%, draw 25%, Warta Poznan 19%.
How many goals are expected in Ruch Chorzow vs Warta Poznan?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Ruch Chorzow 1.72 · Warta Poznan 0.9), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ruch Chorzow vs Warta Poznan?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.