Football · Poland I Liga · 22/11, 12:00

Prediction: Unia Skierniewice vs MKP Pogon Siedlce

Team pages: Unia Skierniewice · MKP Pogon Siedlce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Unia Skierniewice1.69

MKP Pogon Siedlce1.35

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Unia Skierniewice Draw MKP Pogon Siedlce

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Unia Skierniewice 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWDDLLLW

MKP Pogon Siedlce 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLLWDW

Head-to-head

Unia Skierniewice 1–1 MKP Pogon Siedlce (2 last)

MKP Pogon Siedlce0-3Unia Skierniewice
MKP Pogon Siedlce4-2Unia Skierniewice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unia Skierniewice 1475 · MKP Pogon Siedlce 1486

	Unia Skierniewice	Draw	MKP Pogon Siedlce
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unia Skierniewice	MKP Pogon Siedlce
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.5	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.03
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.71
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.35 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +4’	2.00	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +5’	2.03	3.71	3.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unia Skierniewice 1–0–1 MKP Pogon Siedlce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Club Friendly List	MKP Pogon Siedlce	0-3 HT 0-0	Unia Skierniewice
02/02/19 Europe Friendlies	MKP Pogon Siedlce	4-2 HT 2-1	Unia Skierniewice

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Polonia Warsaw	14	7	4	3	23	15	25
2	LKS Lodz	14	7	4	3	17	12	25
3	Polonia Bytom	14	6	6	2	24	20	24
4	Lechia Gdansk	14	7	1	6	25	22	22
5	Ruch Chorzow	14	6	4	4	17	14	22
6	Termalica BB Nieciecza	14	6	4	4	22	20	22
7	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	14	6	3	5	20	14	21
8	Miedz Legnica	14	5	5	4	20	13	20
9	Warta Poznan	14	6	1	7	20	20	19
10	MKP Pogon Siedlce	14	5	4	5	17	17	19
11	Stal Mielec	14	5	4	5	19	27	19
12	Arka Gdynia	14	5	3	6	19	17	18
13	Stal Rzeszow	14	5	3	6	18	25	18
14	Chrobry Glogow	14	3	6	5	15	17	15
15	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	14	2	9	3	17	20	15
16	Puszcza Niepolomice	14	4	2	8	16	20	14
17	Unia Skierniewice	14	4	2	8	20	26	14
18	Odra Opole	14	3	3	8	11	21	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unia Skierniewice	MKP Pogon Siedlce
Odra Opole	5-3 W	1-0 W
Lechia Gdansk	2-3 L	0-1 L
Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	1-1 D	0-1 L
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3-2 W	2-1 W
Ruch Chorzow	1-3 L	1-1 D
Stal Rzeszow	0-1 L	3-4 L
Puszcza Niepolomice	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Unia Skierniewice (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unia Skierniewice

WLLWDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-1	5-3	6	9	W
31/10	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	2-1	2-3	6	3	L
24/10	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	0-0	1-2	6	6	L
16/10	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	12	3	L
10/10	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-2	2-2	6	4	D
20/09	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
13/09	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-1	3-2	8	6	W
07/09	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
28/08	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
23/08	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W

MKP Pogon Siedlce

LWDWLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
03/11	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
25/10	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
18/10	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-3	3-4	4	2	L
15/10	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	0-0	1-3	8	7	L
09/10	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
20/09	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/08	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
21/08	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unia Skierniewice vs MKP Pogon Siedlce?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Unia Skierniewice win (44%). Probabilities: Unia Skierniewice 44%, draw 26%, MKP Pogon Siedlce 30%.

How many goals are expected in Unia Skierniewice vs MKP Pogon Siedlce?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Unia Skierniewice 1.69 · MKP Pogon Siedlce 1.35), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Unia Skierniewice vs MKP Pogon Siedlce?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.