Football · England Premier League · 21/11, 16:00
Prediction: Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Team pages: Aston Villa · Sunderland
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Aston Villa1.9
Sunderland1.14
1X2
Aston Villa
Draw
Sunderland
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Aston Villa
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Sunderland
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aston Villa
3–2–1
Sunderland
(6 last)
- Aston Villa4-3Sunderland
- Sunderland1-1Aston Villa
- Sunderland0-3Aston Villa
- Aston Villa2-1Sunderland
- Sunderland3-1Aston Villa
- Aston Villa2-2Sunderland
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aston Villa 1546 · Sunderland 1459
| Aston Villa | Draw | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Market | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aston Villa (rating 1546 vs 1459).
- H2H favours Aston Villa: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aston Villa | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.7 | 0.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.4 | 2.1 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aston Villa 3–2–1 Sunderland
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 4-3 HT 2-1 | Sunderland |
| 21/09/25 England Premier League | Sunderland | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Aston Villa |
| 06/03/18 England Championship | Sunderland | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Aston Villa |
| 21/11/17 England Championship | Aston Villa | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Sunderland |
| 02/01/16 England Premier League | Sunderland | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Aston Villa |
| 29/08/15 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Sunderland |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 27 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | 22 |
| 3 | Man City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 14 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 13 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | Hull | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 9 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
| 18 | Man Utd | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 8 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Man City | 2-1 W | 3-5 L |
| Brentford | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Arsenal | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Brighton | 0-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aston Villa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Man Utd England Premier League |
2-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 31/10 | Fulham England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 24/10 | Man City England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 17/10 | Newcastle England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 10/10 | Brentford England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 19/09 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Hull England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 31/08 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-4 | 0-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
Sunderland
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 31/10 | Coventry England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 10/10 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | Man City England Premier League |
2-3 | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/09 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 05/09 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Aston Villa win (53%). Probabilities: Aston Villa 53%, draw 26%, Sunderland 21%.
How many goals are expected in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Aston Villa 1.9 · Sunderland 1.14), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.