Football · England Premier League · 21/11, 16:00
Prediction: Chelsea vs Leeds
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.2Total
Chelsea1.91
Leeds1.28
1X2
Chelsea
Draw
Leeds
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Chelsea
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Leeds
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chelsea
4–1–1
Leeds
(6 last)
- Chelsea6-3Leeds
- Chelsea1-0Leeds
- Chelsea2-2Leeds
- Leeds3-1Chelsea
- Chelsea3-2Leeds
- Chelsea1-0Leeds
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chelsea 1525 · Leeds 1516
| Chelsea | Draw | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Chelsea: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chelsea | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.6 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.5 | 1.7 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelsea 4–1–1 Leeds
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/26 England EFL Cup | Chelsea | 6-3 HT 0-1 | Leeds |
| 26/04/26 England FA Cup | Chelsea | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Leeds |
| 10/02/26 England Premier League | Chelsea | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Leeds |
| 03/12/25 England Premier League | Leeds | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Chelsea |
| 28/02/24 England FA Cup | Chelsea | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Leeds |
| 04/03/23 England Premier League | Chelsea | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Leeds |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 27 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | 22 |
| 3 | Man City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 14 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 13 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | Hull | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 9 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
| 18 | Man Utd | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 8 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chelsea | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Man Utd | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Tottenham | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Bournemouth | 5-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Brentford | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Arsenal | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Brighton | 4-3 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 4 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chelsea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 31/10 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 24/10 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 17/10 | Everton England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 18/09 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 12 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Hull England Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Arsenal England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Brighton England Premier League |
3-1 | 4-3 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Fulham England Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
Leeds
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 31/10 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 14/09 | Newcastle England Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Brighton England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chelsea vs Leeds?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelsea win (51%). Probabilities: Chelsea 51%, draw 25%, Leeds 24%.
How many goals are expected in Chelsea vs Leeds?
The model expects 3.2 goals (Chelsea 1.91 · Leeds 1.28), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Leeds?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.