Football · England Premier League · 21/11, 18:30
Prediction: Newcastle vs Arsenal
Team pages: Newcastle · Arsenal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Newcastle0.8
Arsenal1.81
1X2
Newcastle
Draw
Arsenal
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
0-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Newcastle
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Arsenal
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newcastle
2–4
Arsenal
(6 last)
- Arsenal1-0Newcastle
- Newcastle1-2Arsenal
- Arsenal3-2Newcastle
- Arsenal1-0Newcastle
- Newcastle2-0Arsenal
- Arsenal0-2Newcastle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newcastle 1477 · Arsenal 1637
| Newcastle | Draw | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 25% | 60% |
| Market | 16% | 22% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arsenal (rating 1477 vs 1637).
- H2H favours Arsenal: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newcastle | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.3 | 2.5 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle 2–0–4 Arsenal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 England Premier League | Arsenal | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Newcastle |
| 28/09/25 England Premier League | Newcastle | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Arsenal |
| 27/07/25 Elite Club Friendlies | Arsenal | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Newcastle |
| 18/05/25 England Premier League | Arsenal | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Newcastle |
| 05/02/25 England EFL Cup | Newcastle | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Arsenal |
| 07/01/25 England EFL Cup | Arsenal | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Newcastle |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 27 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | 22 |
| 3 | Man City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 14 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 13 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | Hull | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 9 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
| 18 | Man Utd | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 8 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newcastle | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Aston Villa | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Coventry | 1-4 L | 3-0 W |
| Hull | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Leeds | 1-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Liverpool | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Arsenal (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newcastle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 02/11 | Everton England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 25/10 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 17/10 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 12/10 | Coventry England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Hull England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 14/09 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
Arsenal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Hull England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 01/11 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 24/10 | Everton England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 06/09 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Coventry England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Arsenal win (61%). Probabilities: Newcastle 16%, draw 23%, Arsenal 61%.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Newcastle 0.8 · Arsenal 1.81), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.