Football · England Premier League · 21/11, 16:00
Prediction: Bournemouth vs Nottm Forest
Team pages: Bournemouth · Nottm Forest
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Bournemouth1.56
Nottm Forest1.06
1X2
Bournemouth
Draw
Nottm Forest
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Bournemouth
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Nottm Forest
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bournemouth
3–3–0
Nottm Forest
(6 last)
- Nottm Forest1-1Bournemouth
- Bournemouth2-0Nottm Forest
- Bournemouth5-0Nottm Forest
- Nottm Forest1-1Bournemouth
- Bournemouth1-1Nottm Forest
- Nottm Forest2-3Bournemouth
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bournemouth 1584 · Nottm Forest 1456
| Bournemouth | Draw | Nottm Forest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bournemouth (rating 1584 vs 1456).
- H2H favours Bournemouth: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bournemouth | Nottm Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.8 | 2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bournemouth 3–3–0 Nottm Forest
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 England Premier League | Nottm Forest | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Bournemouth |
| 26/10/25 England Premier League | Bournemouth | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Nottm Forest |
| 25/01/25 England Premier League | Bournemouth | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Nottm Forest |
| 17/08/24 England Premier League | Nottm Forest | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Bournemouth |
| 04/02/24 England Premier League | Bournemouth | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Nottm Forest |
| 23/12/23 England Premier League | Nottm Forest | 2-3 HT 0-0 | Bournemouth |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 27 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | 22 |
| 3 | Man City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 14 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 13 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | Hull | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 9 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
| 18 | Man Utd | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 8 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bournemouth | Nottm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Leeds | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Liverpool | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Brentford | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Man City | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Bournemouth (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bournemouth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 31/10 | Leeds England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/10 | Man Utd England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/10 | Sunderland England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 10/10 | Chelsea England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Brentford England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Newcastle England Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Everton England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 23/08 | Man City England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
Nottm Forest
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Man City England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 31/10 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/10 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/10 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 11/10 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Coventry England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bournemouth vs Nottm Forest?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bournemouth win (48%). Probabilities: Bournemouth 48%, draw 27%, Nottm Forest 25%.
How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs Nottm Forest?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Bournemouth 1.56 · Nottm Forest 1.06), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Nottm Forest?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.