Football · England Premier League · 21/11, 13:30
Prediction: Man City vs Fulham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.41Total
Man City2.39
Fulham1.01
1X2
Man City
Draw
Fulham
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Man City
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Fulham
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Man City
6–0
Fulham
(6 last)
- Man City3-0Fulham
- Fulham4-5Man City
- Fulham0-2Man City
- Man City3-2Fulham
- Fulham0-4Man City
- Man City5-1Fulham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Man City 1572 · Fulham 1460
| Man City | Draw | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Man City (rating 1572 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Man City: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Man City | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.1 | 2.7 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Man City 6–0–0 Fulham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 England Premier League | Man City | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Fulham |
| 02/12/25 England Premier League | Fulham | 4-5 HT 1-3 | Man City |
| 25/05/25 England Premier League | Fulham | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Man City |
| 05/10/24 England Premier League | Man City | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Fulham |
| 11/05/24 England Premier League | Fulham | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Man City |
| 02/09/23 England Premier League | Man City | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Fulham |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 27 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | 22 |
| 3 | Man City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 14 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 13 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | Hull | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 9 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
| 18 | Man Utd | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 8 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Man City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Ipswich | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Liverpool | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Sunderland | 5-3 W | 0-1 L |
| Man Utd | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Coventry | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Crystal Palace | 4-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Man City (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Man City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 31/10 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 17/10 | Ipswich England Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Sunderland England Premier League |
3-2 | 5-3 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Coventry England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
Fulham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 31/10 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 24/10 | Coventry England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Hull England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Ipswich England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 30/08 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 24/08 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Man City vs Fulham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Man City win (67%). Probabilities: Man City 67%, draw 20%, Fulham 13%.
How many goals are expected in Man City vs Fulham?
The model expects 3.41 goals (Man City 2.39 · Fulham 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Man City vs Fulham?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.