Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: FK Minija vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Team pages: FK Minija · FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

FK Minija2.44

FK Kauno Zalgiris II0.67

1X2

77% 14% 9%

FK Minija Draw FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Minija 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWLWWW

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLLWLW

Head-to-head

FK Minija 4–2 FK Kauno Zalgiris II (6 last)

FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-4FK Minija
FK Kauno Zalgiris II1-2FK Minija
FK Minija2-0FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II2-1FK Minija
FK Minija1-2FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Minija3-0FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Minija 1605 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1442

	FK Minija	Draw	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Our model	76%	17%	7%
Market	78%	12%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1605 vs 1442).
H2H favours FK Minija: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Minija	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.3	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.8 / 7.8	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.18

X7.50

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.98

2 (+2.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.17▼	Bet365 1.17
X	7.50 → 7.50	Pinn 7.57
2	9.50 → 11.00▲	Pinn 12.84 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
22:03 +4’	1.18	7.50	9.50
09:24 +9’	1.17▼	7.50	11.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:28 +5’	1.10	7.62	12.91
10:54 +8’	1.10▲	7.57▼	12.84▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Minija 4–0–2 FK Kauno Zalgiris II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-4 HT 0-3	FK Minija
13/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-2 HT 0-2	FK Minija
10/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
03/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Minija
08/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	1-2 HT 0-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
15/09/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	3-0 HT 2-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	21	16	4	1	37	7	52
2	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
3	FK Tauras	21	12	3	6	37	23	39
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	20	12	2	6	27	24	38
5	FK BE1	20	12	2	6	33	24	38
6	DFK Dainava	19	10	5	4	32	18	35
7	BFA Vilnius	20	10	2	8	29	29	32
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	20	9	4	7	31	28	31
9	FK Atmosfera	19	7	4	8	29	24	25
10	Lietava Jonava	21	6	5	10	24	27	23
11	FK Garliava	20	6	4	10	23	22	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	21	6	1	14	24	47	19
13	FK Transinvest II	20	5	3	12	20	46	18
14	FK Siauliai II	21	3	5	13	19	45	14
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
16	FK Ekranas	21	3	2	16	21	45	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Minija	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 L	1-2 L
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	2-1 W
FK Atmosfera	1-0 W	3-1 W
BFA Vilnius	3-0 W	0-1 L
FK Babrungas	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Minija

LDWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
08/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
31/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
28/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
18/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
20/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
07/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
29/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

WLLDLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
10/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
01/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
24/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-4	4	4	L
19/07	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
28/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
24/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
18/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
12/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
30/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	1	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Minija vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Minija win (77%). Probabilities: FK Minija 77%, draw 14%, FK Kauno Zalgiris II 9%.

How many goals are expected in FK Minija vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model expects 3.11 goals (FK Minija 2.44 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 0.67), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Minija vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.