Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 10/10, 13:00

Prediction: FK Tauras vs FK Minija

Team pages: FK Tauras · FK Minija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

FK Tauras1.05

FK Minija1.99

1X2

19% 23% 58%

FK Tauras Draw FK Minija

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Tauras 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDDLLW

FK Minija 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

FK Tauras 4–1–1 FK Minija (6 last)

FK Minija2-1FK Tauras
FK Minija1-2FK Tauras
FK Tauras3-0FK Minija
FK Tauras2-0FK Minija
FK Minija0-0FK Tauras
FK Minija2-4FK Tauras

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Tauras 1503 · FK Minija 1630

	FK Tauras	Draw	FK Minija
Our model	18%	23%	58%
Market	19%	22%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1503 vs 1630).
H2H favours FK Tauras: 4-1-1.
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Tauras	FK Minija
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	2.9 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	5.3 / 8.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.00

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:20 +9’	4.75	4.00	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Tauras 4–1–1 FK Minija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Tauras
02/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Tauras
29/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	3-0 HT 0-0	FK Minija
26/07/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Minija
13/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Tauras
24/10/15 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-4 HT 0-2	FK Tauras

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	24	21	1	2	63	13	64
2	FK Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43	11	61
3	FK BE1	24	16	2	6	43	25	50
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	25	14	2	9	33	30	44
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39	35	43
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	25	13	4	8	38	32	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	24	11	7	6	34	23	40
9	FK Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37	33	30
10	Lietava Jonava	25	7	6	12	28	33	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	25	7	1	17	30	56	22
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	24	7	1	16	23	38	22
13	FK Garliava	24	6	4	14	27	30	22
14	FK Transinvest II	25	6	3	16	29	58	21
15	FK Siauliai II	25	4	5	16	27	56	17
16	FK Ekranas	25	4	2	19	25	58	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Tauras	FK Minija
Lietava Jonava	3-2 W	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 L	0-1 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-2 L	2-1 W
DFK Dainava	1-1 D	3-0 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	4-2 W	5-0 W
FK Siauliai II	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Tauras

WWDLWDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	4	3	W
12/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
05/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	6	6	L
28/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
21/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
15/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
08/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	8	9	L
02/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
24/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	4-2	6	4	W
19/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-1	5	5	W

FK Minija

WLWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
19/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	12	3	W
05/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
28/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	9	8	W
14/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
08/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
31/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
28/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
18/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Tauras vs FK Minija?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Minija win (58%). Probabilities: FK Tauras 19%, draw 23%, FK Minija 58%.

How many goals are expected in FK Tauras vs FK Minija?

The model expects 3.03 goals (FK Tauras 1.05 · FK Minija 1.99), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Tauras vs FK Minija?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.