Football · Scotland Premiership · 21/11, 21:00

Prediction: Motherwell vs Rangers

Team pages: Motherwell · Rangers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Motherwell0.94

Rangers1.83

1X2

19% 23% 58%

Motherwell Draw Rangers

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Motherwell 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLDWD

Rangers 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWDW

Head-to-head

Motherwell 2–2–2 Rangers (6 last)

Rangers1-0Motherwell
Rangers2-3Motherwell
Motherwell1-1Rangers
Rangers1-0Motherwell
Motherwell1-1Rangers
Rangers1-2Motherwell

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motherwell 1450 · Rangers 1612

	Motherwell	Draw	Rangers
Our model	18%	25%	57%
Market	19%	22%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rangers (rating 1450 vs 1612).
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motherwell	Rangers
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6	3.4 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.20

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.88

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.09
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.67 ★
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +9’	4.75	4.20	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +9’	5.09	4.67	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Motherwell 2–2–2 Rangers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	1-0 HT 1-0	Motherwell
26/04/26 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	2-3 HT 0-2	Motherwell
11/02/26 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	1-1 HT 0-1	Rangers
27/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	1-0 HT 0-0	Motherwell
02/08/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	1-1 HT 0-1	Rangers
01/03/25 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	1-2 HT 0-2	Motherwell

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	28	10	31
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	21	9	27
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	20	14	21
4	Hearts	12	6	2	4	26	22	20
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	18	15	17
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	17	17	17
7	St Johnstone	13	4	5	4	17	20	17
8	St Mirren	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	15	21	13
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	15	17	11
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	12	18	11
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	13	29	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motherwell	Rangers
St Mirren	1-0 W	2-0 W
St Johnstone	2-2 D	4-0 W
Hearts	0-2 L	2-2 D
Kilmarnock	2-3 L	3-1 W
Celtic	0-2 L	1-0 W
Dundee	1-2 L	2-2 D
Aberdeen	0-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Rangers (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Motherwell

WLLLLLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
31/10	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
28/10	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
25/10	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
17/10	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-3	3	1	L
11/10	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
19/09	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-2	1-2	9	2	L
15/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
05/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
02/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-0	9	2	W

Rangers

WWWWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
28/10	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
24/10	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	1-0	4-0	12	3	W
17/10	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
10/10	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	3-0	3-1	7	2	W
20/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
09/09	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
05/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
02/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
30/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	6	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motherwell vs Rangers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rangers win (58%). Probabilities: Motherwell 19%, draw 23%, Rangers 58%.

How many goals are expected in Motherwell vs Rangers?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Motherwell 0.94 · Rangers 1.83), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Rangers?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.