Football · Scotland Premiership · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Celtic vs St Mirren

Team pages: Celtic · St Mirren

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Celtic2.58

St Mirren0.66

1X2

79% 14% 7%

Celtic Draw St Mirren

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Celtic 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWDLW

St Mirren 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWDLL

Head-to-head

Celtic 4–1–1 St Mirren (6 last)

St Mirren1-2Celtic
Celtic2-2St Mirren
Celtic1-0St Mirren
St Mirren3-1Celtic
St Mirren0-1Celtic
Celtic1-0St Mirren

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Celtic 1541 · St Mirren 1429

	Celtic	Draw	St Mirren
Our model	78%	15%	7%
Market	79%	13%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Celtic (rating 1541 vs 1429).
H2H favours Celtic: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Celtic	St Mirren
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 10	2.1 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.00

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.93

2 (+2.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.88

Diff.: 1.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 8.23 ★
2	12.00 → 12.00	Pinn 12.79

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24	1.17	7.00	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +5’	1.16	8.23	12.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Celtic 4–1–1 St Mirren

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	1-2 HT 1-0	Celtic
19/04/26 Scotland FA Cup	Celtic	2-2 HT 2-0	St Mirren
11/04/26 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	1-0 HT 1-0	St Mirren
14/12/25 Scotland League Cup	St Mirren	3-1 HT 1-1	Celtic
22/11/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	0-1 HT 0-0	Celtic
03/08/25 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	1-0 HT 0-0	St Mirren

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	28	10	31
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	21	9	27
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	20	14	21
4	Hearts	12	6	2	4	26	22	20
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	18	15	17
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	17	17	17
7	St Johnstone	13	4	5	4	17	20	17
8	St Mirren	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	15	21	13
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	15	17	11
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	12	18	11
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	13	29	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Celtic	St Mirren
Kilmarnock	1-0 W	1-0 W
Dundee Utd	2-2 D	0-3 L
Hibernian	2-1 W	1-1 D
Hearts	7-1 W	0-5 L
Motherwell	2-0 W	0-1 L
Rangers	0-1 L	0-2 L
Aberdeen	3-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Celtic (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Celtic

WWWLWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
01/11	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-2	14	4	L
28/10	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-2	2-2	13	4	D
25/10	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
18/10	Hearts Scotland Premiership	5-1	7-1	6	4	W
11/10	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
20/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
09/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
05/09	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	10	3	W
02/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	3-0	3-0	15	2	W

St Mirren

WLLLLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
31/10	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
28/10	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
24/10	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
17/10	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
10/10	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-5	2	5	L
19/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-3	4	4	L
09/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
05/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
02/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Celtic vs St Mirren?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Celtic win (79%). Probabilities: Celtic 79%, draw 14%, St Mirren 7%.

How many goals are expected in Celtic vs St Mirren?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Celtic 2.58 · St Mirren 0.66), with a 61% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Celtic vs St Mirren?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.