Football · Scotland Premiership · 21/11, 18:45

Prediction: Dundee vs Hearts

Team pages: Dundee · Hearts

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Dundee1.32

Hearts1.82

1X2

27% 24% 49%

Dundee Draw Hearts

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dundee 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Hearts 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Dundee 1–5 Hearts (6 last)

Hearts2-1Dundee
Hearts1-0Dundee
Dundee0-1Hearts
Hearts4-0Dundee
Hearts0-1Dundee
Hearts3-1Dundee

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dundee 1485 · Hearts 1486

	Dundee	Draw	Hearts
Our model	27%	25%	48%
Market	27%	24%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hearts: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dundee	Hearts
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	2.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.2	3.6 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.90

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.50
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 1.99 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +24’	3.40	3.90	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +7’	3.50	3.85	1.99

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundee 1–0–5 Hearts

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	2-1 HT 0-1	Dundee
21/03/26 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	1-0 HT 0-0	Dundee
11/01/26 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	0-1 HT 0-1	Hearts
01/11/25 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	4-0 HT 2-0	Dundee
26/04/25 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	0-1 HT 0-1	Dundee
07/03/25 Scotland FA Cup	Hearts	3-1 HT 1-0	Dundee

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	28	10	31
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	21	9	27
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	20	14	21
4	Hearts	12	6	2	4	26	22	20
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	18	15	17
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	17	17	17
7	St Johnstone	13	4	5	4	17	20	17
8	St Mirren	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	15	21	13
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	15	17	11
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	12	18	11
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	13	29	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dundee	Hearts
St Johnstone	1-2 L	2-1 W
Kilmarnock	3-1 W	1-1 D
St Mirren	1-2 L	5-0 W
Rangers	2-2 D	2-2 D
Falkirk	2-1 W	2-5 L
Motherwell	2-1 W	2-0 W
Hibernian	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hearts (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dundee

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
28/10	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
24/10	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
17/10	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
10/10	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	10	0	W
19/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-1	9	2	W
06/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
02/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
22/08	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	6	7	W

Hearts

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-4	2-5	4	7	L
28/10	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-2	4	6	D
25/10	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
18/10	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-5	1-7	3	4	L
10/10	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	2-0	5-0	6	5	W
19/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
15/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
06/09	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	14	6	W
03/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-1	8	3	W
29/08	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	2-0	2-1	8	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dundee vs Hearts?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hearts win (49%). Probabilities: Dundee 27%, draw 24%, Hearts 49%.

How many goals are expected in Dundee vs Hearts?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Dundee 1.32 · Hearts 1.82), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dundee vs Hearts?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.