Football · Scotland Premiership · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Falkirk vs St Johnstone

Team pages: Falkirk · St Johnstone

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Falkirk1.68

St Johnstone1.17

1X2

48% 25% 26%

Falkirk Draw St Johnstone

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Falkirk 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWWWWW

St Johnstone 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDWDLDDW

Head-to-head

Falkirk 1–1–2 St Johnstone (4 last)

St Johnstone1-1Falkirk
St Johnstone0-1Falkirk
St Johnstone1-0Falkirk
St Johnstone3-0Falkirk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Falkirk 1560 · St Johnstone 1502

	Falkirk	Draw	St Johnstone
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Falkirk (rating 1560 vs 1502).
H2H favours St Johnstone: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Falkirk	St Johnstone
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.5	1.3 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.75

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 4.10 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +3’	1.90	3.75	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +5’	1.87	3.70	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Falkirk 1–1–2 St Johnstone

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 Scotland Premiership	St Johnstone	1-1 HT 0-0	Falkirk
08/07/25 UK Friendlies	St Johnstone	0-1 HT 0-1	Falkirk
24/07/18 Scotland League Cup	St Johnstone	1-0 HT 1-0	Falkirk
23/07/16 Scotland League Cup	St Johnstone	3-0 HT 2-0	Falkirk

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	28	10	31
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	21	9	27
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	20	14	21
4	Hearts	12	6	2	4	26	22	20
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	18	15	17
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	17	17	17
7	St Johnstone	13	4	5	4	17	20	17
8	St Mirren	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	15	21	13
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	15	17	11
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	12	18	11
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	13	29	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Falkirk	St Johnstone
Celtic	2-0 W	0-1 L
Aberdeen	1-0 W	1-0 W
Kilmarnock	3-0 W	2-2 D
Hibernian	2-1 W	2-1 W
Dundee	1-2 L	2-1 W
Dundee Utd	1-1 D	1-1 D
Rangers	1-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Falkirk (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Falkirk

LDWDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Hearts Scotland Premiership	4-0	5-2	5	7	W
01/11	Celtic Scotland Premiership	2-0	2-0	0	4	W
28/10	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
24/10	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-0	9	2	W
17/10	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
10/10	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	3	0	L
19/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
15/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
05/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-2	5	3	L

St Johnstone

DWLDWDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
31/10	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-2	2-2	2	6	D
28/10	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
24/10	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-4	2	3	L
17/10	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
11/10	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
19/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
09/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
02/09	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Falkirk vs St Johnstone?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Falkirk win (48%). Probabilities: Falkirk 48%, draw 25%, St Johnstone 26%.

How many goals are expected in Falkirk vs St Johnstone?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Falkirk 1.68 · St Johnstone 1.17), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Falkirk vs St Johnstone?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.